Models
SKF INDIA LTDSKFINDIAAuto Components
₹494per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹494implied FY26 P/E 11.7× · EV/EBITDA 5.3×
Against CMP ₹1,527.50−67.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3179%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹392₹696
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,404₹5,074
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 451 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,697 |
| Enterprise value | 2,148 |
| less net debt | 292 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,440 |
| ÷ 4.94 crore shares | ₹494 |
79% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 508 | 543 | 584 | 634 | 696 |
| 10.50% | 472 | 501 | 534 | 575 | 624 |
| 11.00% | 442 | 466 | 494 | 527 | 566 |
| 11.50% | 415 | 436 | 459 | 486 | 519 |
| 12.00% | 392 | 410 | 430 | 453 | 480 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,527.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 421 · 494 · 583 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.70 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.69 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,305 | 4,570 | 4,920 | 3,763 | 3,575 | 3,396 | 3,227 | 3,065 | 2,912 |
| growth % | 17.4 | 6.2 | 7.7 | (23.5) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 749 | 718 | 723 | 406 | 386 | 367 | 348 | 331 | 315 |
| margin % | 17.4 | 15.7 | 14.7 | 10.8 | 10.8 | 10.8 | 10.8 | 10.8 | 10.8 |
| less depreciation | (67) | (75) | (83) | (78) | (75) | (71) | (68) | (64) | (61) |
| EBIT | 683 | 643 | 640 | 328 | 311 | 295 | 281 | 267 | 253 |
| less tax on EBIT | (126) | (120) | (114) | (108) | (103) | (98) | |||
| NOPAT | 201 | 191 | 181 | 172 | 164 | 156 | |||
| add depreciation | 67 | 75 | 83 | 78 | 75 | 71 | 68 | 64 | 61 |
| less capex | (107) | (130) | (131) | (229) | (218) | (177) | (139) | (105) | (73) |
| less working-capital build | — | 25 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 20 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 584 | 494 | 72 | — | 73 | 99 | 123 | 145 | 163 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 69 | 85 | 95 | 100 | 102 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 27% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 328 | 311 | 295 | 281 | 267 | 253 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 311 | 295 | 281 | 267 | 253 | |
| Profit after tax | 266 | 191 | 181 | 172 | 164 | 156 |
| Dividends | (72) | (52) | (49) | (47) | (44) | (42) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 292 | 313 | 364 | 441 | 541 | 662 |
| Working capital | 492 | 467 | 444 | 422 | 400 | 380 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,295 | 1,438 | 1,543 | 1,615 | 1,655 | 1,667 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 1,329 | 1,469 | 1,601 | 1,727 | 1,847 | 1,960 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 291 | 276 | 262 | 249 | 237 | |
| Investing (capex) | (218) | (177) | (139) | (105) | (73) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (52) | (49) | (47) | (44) | (42) | |
| Net change in cash | 21 | 50 | 77 | 100 | 121 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 73 | 99 | 123 | 145 | 163 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 10.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹494 | (67.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.