Models
SKM EGG PROD EXPORT(I) LTSKMEGGPRODFood Products
₹653per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹653implied FY26 P/E 20.7× · EV/EBITDA 21.3×
Against CMP ₹242.50+169.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(5.4)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3181%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹494₹971
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹143₹372
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 652 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,837 |
| Enterprise value | 3,489 |
| less net debt | (49) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,440 |
| ÷ 5.27 crore shares | ₹653 |
81% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 676 | 730 | 794 | 873 | 971 |
| 10.50% | 620 | 665 | 717 | 780 | 858 |
| 11.00% | 572 | 609 | 653 | 705 | 767 |
| 11.50% | 530 | 562 | 599 | 642 | 693 |
| 12.00% | 494 | 522 | 553 | 589 | 631 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹242.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 492 · 644 · 850 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.61 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.59 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.46 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 662 | 701 | 498 | 768 | 998 | 1,298 | 1,687 | 2,193 | 2,852 |
| growth % | 118.8 | 5.9 | (29.0) | 54.3 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 125 | 123 | 58 | 164 | 213 | 276 | 359 | 467 | 607 |
| margin % | 18.9 | 17.5 | 11.6 | 21.3 | 21.3 | 21.3 | 21.3 | 21.3 | 21.3 |
| less depreciation | (11) | (12) | (14) | (16) | (20) | (26) | (34) | (44) | (57) |
| EBIT | 114 | 111 | 44 | 148 | 193 | 250 | 326 | 423 | 550 |
| less tax on EBIT | (36) | (47) | (61) | (80) | (104) | (135) | |||
| NOPAT | 112 | 145 | 189 | 246 | 320 | 416 | |||
| add depreciation | 11 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 20 | 26 | 34 | 44 | 57 |
| less capex | (28) | (62) | (33) | (14) | (19) | (26) | (36) | (50) | (68) |
| less working-capital build | — | (46) | (60) | (77) | (101) | (131) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 32 | 47 | 32 | — | 101 | 129 | 166 | 213 | 273 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 96 | 110 | 128 | 148 | 171 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 142, dividends at 3.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 148 | 193 | 250 | 326 | 423 | 550 |
| Interest at 7.7% on debt | (11) | (11) | (11) | (11) | (11) | |
| Profit before tax | 182 | 240 | 315 | 412 | 539 | |
| Profit after tax | 104 | 137 | 181 | 238 | 311 | 407 |
| Dividends | (4) | (5) | (7) | (9) | (12) | (15) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 93 | 180 | 294 | 443 | 636 | 885 |
| Working capital | 153 | 199 | 258 | 336 | 437 | 568 |
| Net block and other assets | 349 | 348 | 349 | 351 | 357 | 369 |
| Debt | 142 | 142 | 142 | 142 | 142 | 142 |
| Equity | 395 | 527 | 701 | 930 | 1,229 | 1,621 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 111 | 147 | 194 | 255 | 333 | |
| Investing (capex) | (19) | (26) | (36) | (50) | (68) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (5) | (7) | (9) | (12) | (15) | |
| Net change in cash | 87 | 114 | 149 | 193 | 249 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 92 | 121 | 158 | 205 | 265 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 21.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹653 | 169.4% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.