₹265per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹265implied FY26 P/E 108.6× · EV/EBITDA 2.7×
Against CMP ₹532.00−50.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies30.8%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3139%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹231₹331
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹362₹619
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,910 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,238 |
| Enterprise value | 3,147 |
| less net debt | (119) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,028 |
| ÷ 11.43 crore shares | ₹265 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 272 | 282 | 295 | 311 | 331 |
| 10.50% | 259 | 268 | 279 | 292 | 307 |
| 11.00% | 249 | 256 | 265 | 275 | 288 |
| 11.50% | 239 | 246 | 253 | 262 | 272 |
| 12.00% | 231 | 237 | 243 | 250 | 259 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹532.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 104 · 262 · 419 |
| Draws below the CMP | 99% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.98 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.10 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.08 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,796 | 1,939 | 2,095 | 2,262 | 2,443 | 2,639 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 1,155 | 1,247 | 1,347 | 1,455 | 1,571 | 1,697 |
| margin % | 64.3 | 64.3 | 64.3 | 64.3 | 64.3 | 64.3 |
| less depreciation | (829) | (896) | (968) | (1,045) | (1,129) | (1,219) |
| EBIT | 326 | 351 | 379 | 409 | 442 | 478 |
| less tax on EBIT | (78) | (84) | (91) | (98) | (106) | (115) |
| NOPAT | 248 | 267 | 288 | 311 | 336 | 363 |
| add depreciation | 829 | 896 | 968 | 1,045 | 1,129 | 1,219 |
| less capex | (388) | (419) | (630) | (871) | (1,148) | (1,463) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 744 | 626 | 485 | 317 | 119 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 706 | 535 | 374 | 220 | 75 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 207, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 326 | 351 | 379 | 409 | 442 | 478 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (17) | (17) | (17) | (17) | (17) | |
| Profit before tax | 334 | 363 | 393 | 426 | 461 | |
| Profit after tax | 11 | 254 | 276 | 299 | 323 | 350 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 88 | 819 | 1,433 | 1,905 | 2,210 | 2,316 |
| Working capital | (154) | (154) | (154) | (154) | (154) | (154) |
| Net block and other assets | 6,529 | 6,052 | 5,714 | 5,540 | 5,559 | 5,803 |
| Debt | 207 | 207 | 207 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
| Equity | 531 | 785 | 1,060 | 1,359 | 1,683 | 2,033 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,150 | 1,243 | 1,344 | 1,452 | 1,569 | |
| Investing (capex) | (419) | (630) | (871) | (1,148) | (1,463) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 731 | 614 | 472 | 304 | 107 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 731 | 614 | 472 | 304 | 107 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 64.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹265 | (50.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.