Models
SMC GLOBAL SECURITIES LTDSMCGLOBALCapital Markets
₹233per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹233implied FY26 P/E 25.8× · EV/EBITDA 12.5×
Against CMP ₹86.40+169.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(17.4)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3175%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹182₹333
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹54₹95
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,161 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,555 |
| Enterprise value | 4,716 |
| less net debt | 153 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 4,869 |
| ÷ 20.94 crore shares | ₹233 |
75% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 240 | 257 | 277 | 302 | 333 |
| 10.50% | 222 | 236 | 253 | 273 | 297 |
| 11.00% | 207 | 219 | 233 | 249 | 268 |
| 11.50% | 194 | 204 | 215 | 229 | 245 |
| 12.00% | 182 | 191 | 201 | 212 | 225 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹86.40; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 196 · 231 · 274 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.69 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.61 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.31 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,217 | 1,638 | 1,776 | 1,877 | 1,980 | 2,089 | 2,204 | 2,325 | 2,453 |
| growth % | 10.0 | 34.7 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| EBITDA | 270 | 425 | 419 | 376 | 398 | 420 | 443 | 467 | 493 |
| margin % | 22.2 | 25.9 | 23.6 | 20.1 | 20.1 | 20.1 | 20.1 | 20.1 | 20.1 |
| less depreciation | (23) | (32) | (30) | (28) | (30) | (31) | (33) | (35) | (37) |
| EBIT | 247 | 393 | 389 | 348 | 368 | 389 | 410 | 432 | 456 |
| less tax on EBIT | (81) | (86) | (91) | (96) | (101) | (106) | |||
| NOPAT | 267 | 282 | 298 | 314 | 332 | 350 | |||
| add depreciation | 23 | 32 | 30 | 28 | 30 | 31 | 33 | 35 | 37 |
| less capex | (30) | (29) | (29) | (45) | (48) | (47) | (46) | (45) | (44) |
| less working-capital build | — | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (295) | (221) | (5) | — | 264 | 282 | 301 | 321 | 342 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 251 | 241 | 232 | 223 | 214 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 26.4% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 348 | 368 | 389 | 410 | 432 | 456 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 368 | 389 | 410 | 432 | 456 | |
| Profit after tax | 102 | 282 | 298 | 314 | 332 | 350 |
| Dividends | (27) | (75) | (79) | (83) | (88) | (92) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 153 | 343 | 546 | 764 | 998 | 1,248 |
| Working capital | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Net block and other assets | 5,586 | 5,604 | 5,620 | 5,633 | 5,643 | 5,651 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 1,306 | 1,514 | 1,733 | 1,965 | 2,209 | 2,466 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 312 | 329 | 347 | 366 | 386 | |
| Investing (capex) | (48) | (47) | (46) | (45) | (44) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (75) | (79) | (83) | (88) | (92) | |
| Net change in cash | 190 | 203 | 218 | 233 | 250 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 264 | 282 | 301 | 321 | 342 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 5.5% | 20.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹233 | 169.1% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.