Models
SML MAHINDRA LIMITEDSMLMAHAgricultural Commercial & Construction Vehicles
₹1,431per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,431implied FY26 P/E 13.2× · EV/EBITDA 8.4×
Against CMP ₹6,591.00−78.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3180%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,047₹2,197
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹2,719₹6,654
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 469 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,879 |
| Enterprise value | 2,348 |
| less net debt | (276) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,072 |
| ÷ 1.45 crore shares | ₹1,431 |
80% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,486 | 1,615 | 1,770 | 1,960 | 2,197 |
| 10.50% | 1,351 | 1,458 | 1,585 | 1,737 | 1,924 |
| 11.00% | 1,235 | 1,325 | 1,431 | 1,556 | 1,705 |
| 11.50% | 1,135 | 1,212 | 1,301 | 1,404 | 1,527 |
| 12.00% | 1,047 | 1,113 | 1,189 | 1,276 | 1,378 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹6,591.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 919 · 1,410 · 1,916 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.89 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.38 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.16 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,822 | 2,196 | 2,399 | 2,838 | 3,363 | 3,985 | 4,722 | 5,596 | 6,631 |
| growth % | 97.1 | 20.6 | 9.2 | 18.3 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 |
| EBITDA | 82 | 179 | 235 | 278 | 330 | 391 | 463 | 548 | 650 |
| margin % | 4.5 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.8 |
| less depreciation | (42) | (48) | (48) | (52) | (61) | (72) | (85) | (101) | (119) |
| EBIT | 39 | 131 | 186 | 226 | 269 | 319 | 378 | 448 | 530 |
| less tax on EBIT | (57) | (68) | (81) | (96) | (113) | (134) | |||
| NOPAT | 169 | 201 | 238 | 282 | 334 | 396 | |||
| add depreciation | 42 | 48 | 48 | 52 | 61 | 72 | 85 | 101 | 119 |
| less capex | (41) | (42) | (62) | (70) | (84) | (96) | (110) | (126) | (143) |
| less working-capital build | — | (97) | (115) | (136) | (162) | (192) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 49 | (92) | 116 | — | 80 | 99 | 121 | 148 | 181 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 76 | 84 | 93 | 103 | 113 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 280, dividends at 16.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 226 | 269 | 319 | 378 | 448 | 530 |
| Interest at 6.9% on debt | (19) | (19) | (19) | (19) | (19) | |
| Profit before tax | 250 | 299 | 358 | 428 | 511 | |
| Profit after tax | 160 | 187 | 224 | 268 | 320 | 382 |
| Dividends | (26) | (30) | (36) | (43) | (52) | (62) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 5 | 40 | 88 | 151 | 233 | 337 |
| Working capital | 526 | 623 | 738 | 874 | 1,036 | 1,227 |
| Net block and other assets | 867 | 890 | 915 | 940 | 965 | 989 |
| Debt | 280 | 280 | 280 | 280 | 280 | 280 |
| Equity | 519 | 676 | 863 | 1,088 | 1,356 | 1,676 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 150 | 180 | 216 | 259 | 310 | |
| Investing (capex) | (84) | (96) | (110) | (126) | (143) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (30) | (36) | (43) | (52) | (62) | |
| Net change in cash | 36 | 48 | 63 | 82 | 105 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 66 | 84 | 106 | 133 | 166 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 18.5% | 9.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,431 | (78.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.