SOBHAGYA MERCHANTILE LTD. — valuation model

SOBHAGYA MERCHANTILE LTD.BSE 512014Commercial Services & Supplies

₹803per share · Base Model Note

Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.

Scenario

Value per share, your model₹803implied FY26 P/E 29.2× · EV/EBITDA 22.4×

Against CMP ₹1,408.40−43.0%close of 2026-09-10

Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs

Value after FY3182%share of enterprise value in the terminal

This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.

Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP

DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid

₹619₹1,170

52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value

₹679₹1,595

From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore

PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow	136
PV of terminal value	606
Enterprise value	742
less net debt	41
less non-controlling interest	0
add non-operating investments	0
Equity value	783
÷ 0.97 crore shares	₹803

82% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.

Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore

Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm

Sensitivity · ₹ per share

Down Across

WACC ↓terminal growth →	4.0%	4.5%	5.0%	5.5%	6.0%
10.00%	829	891	965	1,056	1,170
10.50%	764	816	877	950	1,039
11.00%	709	752	803	863	934
11.50%	661	698	741	790	849
12.00%	619	651	687	729	778

The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,408.40; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.

Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together

10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share	620 · 795 · 1,024
Draws below the CMP	100%
Rank correlation with revenue growth	+0.69
Rank correlation with ebitda margin	+0.50
Rank correlation with discount rate	−0.47

Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.

Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore

History Forward

₹ crore	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Revenue	109	115	157	233	302	393	511	664	863
growth %	63.5	5.9	36.5	47.8	30.0	30.0	30.0	30.0	30.0
EBITDA	13	13	22	33	43	56	73	94	123
margin %	11.7	11.4	14.2	14.2	14.2	14.2	14.2	14.2	14.2
less depreciation	(0)	(1)	(1)	(0)	(0)	(0)	(1)	(1)	(1)
EBIT	12	13	22	33	43	55	72	94	122
less tax on EBIT				(11)	(14)	(18)	(23)	(31)	(40)
NOPAT				22	29	37	49	63	82
add depreciation	0	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	1
less capex	(1)	(1)	(0)	(0)	(1)	(1)	(1)	(1)	(1)
less working-capital build				—	(8)	(11)	(14)	(18)	(24)
Free cash flow to firm	(9)	4	(17)	—	20	26	34	45	58
Discount factor					0.949	0.855	0.770	0.694	0.625
Present value					19	23	26	31	36

History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.

The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 22, dividends at 0% of profit

₹ crore	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Income statement
EBIT	33	43	55	72	94	122
Interest at 18.5% on debt		(4)	(4)	(4)	(4)	(4)
Profit before tax		39	51	68	90	118
Profit after tax	22	26	35	46	60	79
Dividends	0	0	0	0	0	0
Balance sheet, year end
Cash	63	80	104	135	177	233
Working capital	28	36	46	60	78	102
Net block and other assets	260	260	260	261	261	261
Debt	22	22	22	22	22	22
Equity	193	219	254	300	360	439
Balance check	0	0	(0)	(0)	(0)	(0)
Cash flow
From operations		18	24	32	43	57
Investing (capex)		(1)	(1)	(1)	(1)	(1)
Financing (dividends)		0	0	0	0	0
Net change in cash		18	24	32	42	56
Free cash flow to equity		18	24	32	42	56

Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.

Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share

Scenario	Template	Growth	Margin	Rate	Terminal	₹ / share	vs CMP
Base · editing	DCF	30%	14.2%	11.00%	5%	₹803	(43.0)%

A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.