Models
SOLAR INDUSTRIES (I) LTDSOLARINDSChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹4,547per share · Base Model Note
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹4,547implied FY26 P/E 20.7× · EV/EBITDA 16.1×
Against CMP ₹22,290.00−79.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3192%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹3,293₹7,062
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹11,646₹22,625
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 3,456 |
| PV of terminal value | 38,694 |
| Enterprise value | 42,150 |
| less net debt | (998) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 41,152 |
| ÷ 9.05 crore shares | ₹4,547 |
92% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 4,719 | 5,145 | 5,656 | 6,281 | 7,062 |
| 10.50% | 4,278 | 4,632 | 5,050 | 5,552 | 6,166 |
| 11.00% | 3,901 | 4,200 | 4,547 | 4,958 | 5,451 |
| 11.50% | 3,576 | 3,830 | 4,123 | 4,464 | 4,868 |
| 12.00% | 3,293 | 3,511 | 3,760 | 4,048 | 4,383 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹22,290.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 3,282 · 4,449 · 5,998 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.72 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.47 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.43 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6,923 | 6,070 | 7,540 | 9,838 | 12,789 | 16,626 | 21,614 | 28,098 | 36,527 |
| growth % | 75.4 | (12.3) | 24.2 | 30.5 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 1,289 | 1,369 | 1,960 | 2,622 | 3,415 | 4,439 | 5,771 | 7,502 | 9,753 |
| margin % | 18.6 | 22.6 | 26.0 | 26.7 | 26.7 | 26.7 | 26.7 | 26.7 | 26.7 |
| less depreciation | (128) | (143) | (182) | (251) | (333) | (432) | (562) | (731) | (950) |
| EBIT | 1,161 | 1,226 | 1,779 | 2,371 | 3,082 | 4,007 | 5,209 | 6,772 | 8,803 |
| less tax on EBIT | (631) | (820) | (1,066) | (1,386) | (1,801) | (2,342) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,740 | 2,262 | 2,941 | 3,823 | 4,970 | 6,461 | |||
| add depreciation | 128 | 143 | 182 | 251 | 333 | 432 | 562 | 731 | 950 |
| less capex | (479) | (560) | (1,006) | (1,739) | (2,264) | (2,337) | (2,250) | (1,901) | (1,140) |
| less working-capital build | — | (891) | (1,159) | (1,506) | (1,958) | (2,546) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 177 | 846 | 1,462 | — | (560) | (122) | 629 | 1,842 | 3,726 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (532) | (104) | 485 | 1,278 | 2,330 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,468, dividends at 6.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 2,371 | 3,082 | 4,007 | 5,209 | 6,772 | 8,803 |
| Interest at 11.1% on debt | (163) | (163) | (163) | (163) | (163) | |
| Profit before tax | 2,919 | 3,844 | 5,046 | 6,609 | 8,640 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,678 | 2,143 | 2,821 | 3,704 | 4,851 | 6,342 |
| Dividends | (114) | (146) | (192) | (252) | (330) | (431) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 469 | (356) | (790) | (532) | 860 | 4,035 |
| Working capital | 2,967 | 3,859 | 5,017 | 6,524 | 8,482 | 11,028 |
| Net block and other assets | 7,482 | 9,413 | 11,317 | 13,005 | 14,175 | 14,365 |
| Debt | 1,468 | 1,468 | 1,468 | 1,468 | 1,468 | 1,468 |
| Equity | 6,549 | 8,546 | 11,175 | 14,627 | 19,148 | 25,059 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,584 | 2,095 | 2,759 | 3,623 | 4,746 | |
| Investing (capex) | (2,264) | (2,337) | (2,250) | (1,901) | (1,140) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (146) | (192) | (252) | (330) | (431) | |
| Net change in cash | (825) | (434) | 258 | 1,392 | 3,175 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (680) | (242) | 509 | 1,722 | 3,606 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 26.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹4,547 | (79.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.