Models
SONA BLW PRECISION FRGS LSONACOMSAuto Components
₹154per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹154implied FY26 P/E 13.7× · EV/EBITDA 9.1×
Against CMP ₹788.00−80.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3185%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹115₹231
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹402₹844
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,440 |
| PV of terminal value | 8,207 |
| Enterprise value | 9,647 |
| less net debt | (92) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 9,555 |
| ÷ 62.20 crore shares | ₹154 |
85% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 159 | 172 | 188 | 207 | 231 |
| 10.50% | 145 | 156 | 169 | 185 | 204 |
| 11.00% | 134 | 143 | 154 | 166 | 181 |
| 11.50% | 124 | 131 | 140 | 151 | 163 |
| 12.00% | 115 | 121 | 129 | 138 | 148 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹788.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 96 · 150 · 210 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.92 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.33 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,676 | 3,185 | 3,555 | 4,475 | 5,639 | 7,105 | 8,952 | 11,279 | 14,212 |
| growth % | 25.6 | 19.0 | 11.6 | 25.9 | 26.0 | 26.0 | 26.0 | 26.0 | 26.0 |
| EBITDA | 692 | 893 | 956 | 1,056 | 1,331 | 1,677 | 2,113 | 2,662 | 3,354 |
| margin % | 25.9 | 28.1 | 26.9 | 23.6 | 23.6 | 23.6 | 23.6 | 23.6 | 23.6 |
| less depreciation | (178) | (220) | (254) | (288) | (361) | (455) | (573) | (722) | (910) |
| EBIT | 514 | 673 | 702 | 768 | 970 | 1,222 | 1,540 | 1,940 | 2,444 |
| less tax on EBIT | (194) | (244) | (308) | (388) | (489) | (616) | |||
| NOPAT | 575 | 725 | 914 | 1,152 | 1,451 | 1,828 | |||
| add depreciation | 178 | 220 | 254 | 288 | 361 | 455 | 573 | 722 | 910 |
| less capex | (335) | (320) | (417) | (492) | (620) | (723) | (836) | (960) | (1,091) |
| less working-capital build | — | (340) | (428) | (539) | (680) | (856) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 198 | 373 | 358 | — | 126 | 218 | 349 | 534 | 790 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 120 | 187 | 269 | 370 | 494 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 243, dividends at 31.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 768 | 970 | 1,222 | 1,540 | 1,940 | 2,444 |
| Interest at 18.3% on debt | (44) | (44) | (44) | (44) | (44) | |
| Profit before tax | 925 | 1,178 | 1,495 | 1,896 | 2,400 | |
| Profit after tax | 629 | 692 | 881 | 1,119 | 1,418 | 1,795 |
| Dividends | (199) | (219) | (278) | (353) | (448) | (567) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 151 | 25 | (68) | (106) | (53) | 136 |
| Working capital | 1,305 | 1,644 | 2,072 | 2,612 | 3,291 | 4,148 |
| Net block and other assets | 6,008 | 6,268 | 6,535 | 6,799 | 7,037 | 7,219 |
| Debt | 243 | 243 | 243 | 243 | 243 | 243 |
| Equity | 6,132 | 6,606 | 7,208 | 7,973 | 8,943 | 10,171 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 713 | 907 | 1,152 | 1,460 | 1,848 | |
| Investing (capex) | (620) | (723) | (836) | (960) | (1,091) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (219) | (278) | (353) | (448) | (567) | |
| Net change in cash | (126) | (93) | (38) | 52 | 190 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 93 | 185 | 316 | 500 | 757 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 26% | 23.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹154 | (80.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.