Models
SONATA SOFTWARE LTDSONATSOFTWIT - Software
₹255per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹255implied FY26 P/E 15.3× · EV/EBITDA 10.7×
Against CMP ₹265.50−3.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies6.5%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3174%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹198₹370
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹207₹422
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,913 |
| PV of terminal value | 5,346 |
| Enterprise value | 7,259 |
| less net debt | (196) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 7,063 |
| ÷ 27.68 crore shares | ₹255 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 264 | 283 | 306 | 334 | 370 |
| 10.50% | 243 | 259 | 278 | 301 | 329 |
| 11.00% | 226 | 239 | 255 | 274 | 296 |
| 11.50% | 211 | 222 | 236 | 251 | 269 |
| 12.00% | 198 | 208 | 219 | 232 | 247 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹265.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 211 · 254 · 305 |
| Draws below the CMP | 62% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.67 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.64 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.28 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7,449 | 8,613 | 10,157 | 10,701 | 11,290 | 11,911 | 12,566 | 13,257 | 13,986 |
| growth % | 34.1 | 15.6 | 17.9 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| EBITDA | 604 | 553 | 689 | 678 | 711 | 750 | 792 | 835 | 881 |
| margin % | 8.1 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 |
| less depreciation | (59) | (132) | (121) | (104) | (113) | (119) | (126) | (133) | (140) |
| EBIT | 545 | 421 | 568 | 574 | 598 | 631 | 666 | 703 | 741 |
| less tax on EBIT | (149) | (156) | (164) | (173) | (183) | (193) | |||
| NOPAT | 425 | 443 | 467 | 493 | 520 | 549 | |||
| add depreciation | 59 | 132 | 121 | 104 | 113 | 119 | 126 | 133 | 140 |
| less capex | (41) | (25) | (43) | (70) | (79) | (98) | (119) | (143) | (168) |
| less working-capital build | — | (5) | (5) | (5) | (6) | (6) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 227 | 255 | 602 | — | 472 | 483 | 494 | 504 | 515 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 448 | 413 | 380 | 350 | 322 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 568, dividends at 48.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 574 | 598 | 631 | 666 | 703 | 741 |
| Interest at 10.2% on debt | (58) | (58) | (58) | (58) | (58) | |
| Profit before tax | 540 | 573 | 608 | 645 | 683 | |
| Profit after tax | 464 | 400 | 424 | 450 | 477 | 506 |
| Dividends | (223) | (192) | (204) | (216) | (229) | (243) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 373 | 609 | 845 | 1,080 | 1,312 | 1,541 |
| Working capital | 85 | 90 | 95 | 100 | 105 | 111 |
| Net block and other assets | 4,634 | 4,600 | 4,579 | 4,573 | 4,583 | 4,611 |
| Debt | 568 | 568 | 568 | 568 | 568 | 568 |
| Equity | 1,905 | 2,112 | 2,332 | 2,566 | 2,813 | 3,076 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 508 | 538 | 570 | 604 | 640 | |
| Investing (capex) | (79) | (98) | (119) | (143) | (168) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (192) | (204) | (216) | (229) | (243) | |
| Net change in cash | 237 | 236 | 235 | 232 | 229 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 429 | 440 | 451 | 462 | 472 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 5.5% | 6.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹255 | (3.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.