SOUTH INDIA PAPER MILLS LTD. — valuation model

SOUTH INDIA PAPER MILLS LTD.BSE 516108Paper, Forest & Jute Products

₹59per share · Base Model Note

Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.

Scenario

Value per share, your model₹59implied FY26 P/E 10.3× · EV/EBITDA 5.2×

Against CMP ₹118.80−50.2%close of 2026-09-10

Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs

Value after FY3165%share of enterprise value in the terminal

This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.

Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP

DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid

₹32₹114

52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value

₹65₹136

From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore

PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow	93
PV of terminal value	172
Enterprise value	265
less net debt	(154)
less non-controlling interest	0
add non-operating investments	0
Equity value	111
÷ 1.88 crore shares	₹59

Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore

Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm

Sensitivity · ₹ per share

Down Across

WACC ↓terminal growth →	4.0%	4.5%	5.0%	5.5%	6.0%
10.00%	63	73	84	97	114
10.50%	54	61	70	81	94
11.00%	45	52	59	68	79
11.50%	38	44	50	57	66
12.00%	32	36	42	48	55

The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹118.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.

Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together

10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share	(16) · 58 · 122
Draws below the CMP	88%
Rank correlation with ebitda margin	+0.88
Rank correlation with revenue growth	−0.41
Rank correlation with discount rate	−0.19

Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.

Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore

History Forward

₹ crore	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Revenue	288	312	369	434	510	599	704	827	972
growth %	(5.7)	8.5	18.3	17.5	17.5	17.5	17.5	17.5	17.5
EBITDA	7	17	22	51	60	70	82	97	114
margin %	2.4	5.4	6.0	11.7	11.7	11.7	11.7	11.7	11.7
less depreciation	(16)	(18)	(17)	(17)	(19)	(23)	(27)	(31)	(37)
EBIT	(9)	(1)	6	34	40	47	56	65	77
less tax on EBIT				(9)	(10)	(12)	(14)	(16)	(19)
NOPAT				25	30	35	42	49	57
add depreciation	16	18	17	17	19	23	27	31	37
less capex	(27)	(4)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(11)	(19)	(30)	(44)
less working-capital build				—	(18)	(21)	(24)	(29)	(34)
Free cash flow to firm	(26)	(22)	38	—	27	27	25	22	17
Discount factor					0.949	0.855	0.770	0.694	0.625
Present value					26	23	19	15	10

History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.

The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 156, dividends at 0.3% of profit

₹ crore	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Income statement
EBIT	34	40	47	56	65	77
Interest at 12.3% on debt		(19)	(19)	(19)	(19)	(19)
Profit before tax		21	28	36	46	58
Profit after tax	11	16	21	27	35	43
Dividends	(0)	(0)	(0)	(0)	(0)	(0)
Balance sheet, year end
Cash	2	15	27	38	45	47
Working capital	101	118	139	163	192	225
Net block and other assets	346	331	319	312	310	318
Debt	156	156	156	156	156	156
Equity	222	238	259	286	321	364
Balance check	0	0	0	(0)	0	0
Cash flow
From operations		18	23	30	37	46
Investing (capex)		(5)	(11)	(19)	(30)	(44)
Financing (dividends)		(0)	(0)	(0)	(0)	(0)
Net change in cash		13	12	10	7	2
Free cash flow to equity		13	12	10	7	2

Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.

Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share

Scenario	Template	Growth	Margin	Rate	Terminal	₹ / share	vs CMP
Base · editing	DCF	17.5%	11.7%	11.00%	5%	₹59	(50.2)%

A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.