Models
SPIC LTDSPICFertilizers & Agrochemicals
₹31per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹31implied FY26 P/E 3.1× · EV/EBITDA 4.1×
Against CMP ₹68.74−54.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies5.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31101%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹13₹68
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹55₹115
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (14) |
| PV of terminal value | 1,255 |
| Enterprise value | 1,242 |
| less net debt | (604) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 638 |
| ÷ 20.36 crore shares | ₹31 |
101% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 34 | 40 | 47 | 56 | 68 |
| 10.50% | 27 | 33 | 39 | 46 | 55 |
| 11.00% | 22 | 26 | 31 | 37 | 44 |
| 11.50% | 17 | 21 | 25 | 30 | 36 |
| 12.00% | 13 | 16 | 20 | 24 | 29 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹68.74; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 18 · 31 · 47 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.72 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.67 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,829 | 1,944 | 3,086 | 2,956 | 2,838 | 2,724 | 2,615 | 2,511 | 2,410 |
| growth % | — | (31.3) | 58.8 | (4.2) | (4.0) | (4.0) | (4.0) | (4.0) | (4.0) |
| EBITDA | 354 | 201 | 281 | 300 | 287 | 275 | 264 | 254 | 243 |
| margin % | 12.5 | 10.3 | 9.1 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.1 |
| less depreciation | (44) | (38) | (38) | (44) | (43) | (41) | (39) | (38) | (36) |
| EBIT | 310 | 163 | 244 | 256 | 244 | 234 | 225 | 216 | 207 |
| less tax on EBIT | (98) | (93) | (89) | (86) | (82) | (79) | |||
| NOPAT | 158 | 151 | 145 | 139 | 133 | 128 | |||
| add depreciation | 44 | 38 | 38 | 44 | 43 | 41 | 39 | 38 | 36 |
| less capex | (29) | (73) | (253) | (320) | (306) | (233) | (165) | (102) | (43) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (60) | 154 | (291) | — | (113) | (47) | 13 | 69 | 121 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (107) | (40) | 10 | 48 | 76 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 698, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 256 | 244 | 234 | 225 | 216 | 207 |
| Interest at 4% on debt | (28) | (28) | (28) | (28) | (28) | |
| Profit before tax | 216 | 206 | 197 | 188 | 179 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 134 | 128 | 122 | 116 | 111 |
| Dividends | (40) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 94 | (36) | (101) | (105) | (53) | 51 |
| Working capital | (151) | (151) | (151) | (151) | (151) | (151) |
| Net block and other assets | 2,554 | 2,818 | 3,010 | 3,136 | 3,200 | 3,207 |
| Debt | 698 | 698 | 698 | 698 | 698 | 698 |
| Equity | 1,370 | 1,504 | 1,631 | 1,753 | 1,869 | 1,980 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 176 | 168 | 161 | 154 | 147 | |
| Investing (capex) | (306) | (233) | (165) | (102) | (43) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (130) | (65) | (4) | 52 | 104 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (130) | (65) | (4) | 52 | 104 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -4% | 10.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹31 | (54.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.