₹116per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹116implied FY26 P/E 9.2× · EV/EBITDA 6.9×
Against CMP ₹215.00−45.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3166%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹86₹176
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹78₹242
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 664 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,297 |
| Enterprise value | 1,961 |
| less net debt | (462) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,499 |
| ÷ 12.87 crore shares | ₹116 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 121 | 131 | 143 | 158 | 176 |
| 10.50% | 110 | 119 | 129 | 140 | 155 |
| 11.00% | 101 | 108 | 116 | 126 | 138 |
| 11.50% | 93 | 99 | 106 | 114 | 124 |
| 12.00% | 86 | 91 | 97 | 104 | 112 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹215.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 91 · 117 · 146 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.80 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.58 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,205 | 2,377 | 2,524 | 2,496 | 2,471 | 2,446 | 2,422 | 2,398 | 2,374 |
| growth % | 2.4 | 7.8 | 6.2 | (1.1) | (1.0) | (1.0) | (1.0) | (1.0) | (1.0) |
| EBITDA | 249 | 205 | 263 | 286 | 284 | 281 | 278 | 276 | 273 |
| margin % | 11.3 | 8.6 | 10.4 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 |
| less depreciation | (48) | (86) | (90) | (94) | (94) | (93) | (92) | (91) | (90) |
| EBIT | 201 | 119 | 173 | 191 | 190 | 188 | 186 | 185 | 183 |
| less tax on EBIT | (49) | (49) | (48) | (48) | (47) | (47) | |||
| NOPAT | 142 | 142 | 140 | 139 | 137 | 136 | |||
| add depreciation | 48 | 86 | 90 | 94 | 94 | 93 | 92 | 91 | 90 |
| less capex | 0 | (105) | (70) | (34) | (35) | (54) | (72) | (90) | (108) |
| less working-capital build | — | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 520 | (341) | 345 | — | 208 | 187 | 166 | 145 | 125 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 198 | 160 | 128 | 101 | 78 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 463, dividends at 10.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 191 | 190 | 188 | 186 | 185 | 183 |
| Interest at 8.6% on debt | (40) | (40) | (40) | (40) | (40) | |
| Profit before tax | 150 | 149 | 147 | 145 | 143 | |
| Profit after tax | 120 | 112 | 111 | 109 | 108 | 106 |
| Dividends | (13) | (12) | (12) | (12) | (12) | (11) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1 | 167 | 312 | 437 | 540 | 624 |
| Working capital | 726 | 719 | 712 | 705 | 698 | 691 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,018 | 958 | 919 | 899 | 898 | 916 |
| Debt | 463 | 463 | 463 | 463 | 463 | 463 |
| Equity | 1,116 | 1,216 | 1,314 | 1,412 | 1,508 | 1,603 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 213 | 211 | 208 | 206 | 204 | |
| Investing (capex) | (35) | (54) | (72) | (90) | (108) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (12) | (12) | (12) | (12) | (11) | |
| Net change in cash | 166 | 145 | 124 | 104 | 84 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 179 | 157 | 136 | 116 | 95 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -1% | 11.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹116 | (45.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.