Models
SRF LTDSRFChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹856per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹856implied FY26 P/E 11.7× · EV/EBITDA 9.0×
Against CMP ₹2,482.40−65.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3181%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹617₹1,335
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹2,355₹3,210
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 5,763 |
| PV of terminal value | 24,036 |
| Enterprise value | 29,799 |
| less net debt | (4,414) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 25,385 |
| ÷ 29.64 crore shares | ₹856 |
81% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 891 | 972 | 1,069 | 1,187 | 1,335 |
| 10.50% | 806 | 873 | 953 | 1,048 | 1,164 |
| 11.00% | 734 | 790 | 856 | 934 | 1,028 |
| 11.50% | 671 | 719 | 775 | 840 | 916 |
| 12.00% | 617 | 658 | 705 | 760 | 823 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹2,482.40; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 644 · 847 · 1,093 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.77 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.55 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.20 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 149 | 13,139 | 14,693 | 15,787 | 16,970 | 18,243 | 19,612 | 21,082 | 22,664 |
| growth % | (98.8) | 8735.4 | 11.8 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| EBITDA | 35 | 2,584 | 2,718 | 3,325 | 3,581 | 3,849 | 4,138 | 4,448 | 4,782 |
| margin % | 23.7 | 19.7 | 18.5 | 21.1 | 21.1 | 21.1 | 21.1 | 21.1 | 21.1 |
| less depreciation | (6) | (673) | (772) | (852) | (916) | (985) | (1,059) | (1,138) | (1,224) |
| EBIT | 30 | 1,911 | 1,947 | 2,473 | 2,664 | 2,864 | 3,079 | 3,310 | 3,558 |
| less tax on EBIT | (502) | (541) | (581) | (625) | (672) | (722) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,971 | 2,124 | 2,283 | 2,454 | 2,638 | 2,836 | |||
| add depreciation | 6 | 673 | 772 | 852 | 916 | 985 | 1,059 | 1,138 | 1,224 |
| less capex | (29) | (2,217) | (1,231) | (1,815) | (1,952) | (1,869) | (1,763) | (1,631) | (1,469) |
| less working-capital build | — | (207) | (223) | (239) | (257) | (277) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 0 | (123) | 1,256 | — | 881 | 1,176 | 1,510 | 1,888 | 2,314 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 836 | 1,006 | 1,164 | 1,311 | 1,447 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 5,004, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 2,473 | 2,664 | 2,864 | 3,079 | 3,310 | 3,558 |
| Interest at 5.8% on debt | (290) | (290) | (290) | (290) | (290) | |
| Profit before tax | 2,374 | 2,574 | 2,789 | 3,020 | 3,268 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 1,892 | 2,051 | 2,223 | 2,407 | 2,605 |
| Dividends | (266) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 590 | 1,240 | 2,185 | 3,464 | 5,121 | 7,204 |
| Working capital | 2,764 | 2,971 | 3,194 | 3,433 | 3,691 | 3,967 |
| Net block and other assets | 20,792 | 21,828 | 22,712 | 23,416 | 23,908 | 24,153 |
| Debt | 5,004 | 5,004 | 5,004 | 5,004 | 5,004 | 5,004 |
| Equity | 14,043 | 15,935 | 17,986 | 20,209 | 22,616 | 25,220 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 2,601 | 2,814 | 3,042 | 3,288 | 3,552 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,952) | (1,869) | (1,763) | (1,631) | (1,469) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 650 | 945 | 1,279 | 1,657 | 2,083 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 650 | 945 | 1,279 | 1,657 | 2,083 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 7.5% | 21.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹856 | (65.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.