Models
SRI LOTUS DEVLPRS N RTY LLOTUSDEVRealty
₹64per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹64implied FY26 P/E 12.1× · EV/EBITDA 9.0×
Against CMP ₹209.50−69.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹53₹87
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹102₹208
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 610 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,908 |
| Enterprise value | 2,518 |
| less net debt | 618 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,136 |
| ÷ 48.87 crore shares | ₹64 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 66 | 70 | 74 | 80 | 87 |
| 10.50% | 62 | 65 | 69 | 73 | 79 |
| 11.00% | 58 | 61 | 64 | 68 | 72 |
| 11.50% | 55 | 58 | 60 | 63 | 67 |
| 12.00% | 53 | 55 | 57 | 59 | 63 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹209.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 53 · 64 · 76 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.76 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.53 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.32 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 769 | 830 | 897 | 969 | 1,046 | 1,130 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 281 | 303 | 327 | 354 | 382 | 412 |
| margin % | 36.5 | 36.5 | 36.5 | 36.5 | 36.5 | 36.5 |
| less depreciation | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) |
| EBIT | 279 | 301 | 326 | 352 | 380 | 410 |
| less tax on EBIT | (71) | (77) | (83) | (90) | (97) | (105) |
| NOPAT | 208 | 225 | 243 | 262 | 283 | 306 |
| add depreciation | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| less capex | (0) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (3) |
| less working-capital build | — | (89) | (96) | (104) | (112) | (121) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 136 | 147 | 158 | 170 | 184 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 129 | 126 | 122 | 118 | 115 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 131, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 279 | 301 | 326 | 352 | 380 | 410 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | |
| Profit before tax | 291 | 315 | 341 | 369 | 400 | |
| Profit after tax | 237 | 217 | 235 | 254 | 275 | 298 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 749 | 877 | 1,016 | 1,167 | 1,329 | 1,505 |
| Working capital | 1,115 | 1,204 | 1,300 | 1,404 | 1,517 | 1,638 |
| Net block and other assets | 488 | 487 | 486 | 486 | 486 | 487 |
| Debt | 131 | 131 | 131 | 131 | 131 | 131 |
| Equity | 1,919 | 2,135 | 2,370 | 2,624 | 2,900 | 3,197 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 129 | 140 | 152 | 165 | 179 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (3) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 128 | 139 | 150 | 163 | 176 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 128 | 139 | 150 | 163 | 176 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 36.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹64 | (69.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.