STALLION IND FLUOROCHEM L — valuation model

STALLION IND FLUOROCHEM LSTALLIONChemicals & Petrochemicals

₹45per share · Base Model Note

Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.

Scenario

Value per share, your model₹45implied FY26 P/E 7.9× · EV/EBITDA 6.0×

Against CMP ₹225.00−79.8%close of 2026-09-10

Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs

Value after FY31107%share of enterprise value in the terminal

This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.

Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP

DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid

₹36₹64

52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value

₹99₹424

From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore

PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow	(26)
PV of terminal value	376
Enterprise value	350
less net debt	178
less non-controlling interest	0
add non-operating investments	0
Equity value	528
÷ 11.61 crore shares	₹45

107% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.

Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore

Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm

Sensitivity · ₹ per share

Down Across

WACC ↓terminal growth →	4.0%	4.5%	5.0%	5.5%	6.0%
10.00%	47	50	54	59	64
10.50%	43	46	49	53	58
11.00%	41	43	45	49	52
11.50%	38	40	42	45	48
12.00%	36	38	40	42	44

The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹225.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.

Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together

10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share	33 · 45 · 57
Draws below the CMP	100%
Rank correlation with ebitda margin	+0.76
Rank correlation with revenue growth	−0.48
Rank correlation with discount rate	−0.38

Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.

Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore

History Forward

₹ crore	FY25	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Revenue	377	431	491	560	638	727	829
growth %	—	14.1	14.0	14.0	14.0	14.0	14.0
EBITDA	48	58	66	75	86	97	111
margin %	12.6	13.4	13.4	13.4	13.4	13.4	13.4
less depreciation	(1)	(1)	(1)	(2)	(2)	(2)	(2)
EBIT	47	56	64	73	84	95	109
less tax on EBIT		(15)	(17)	(19)	(21)	(24)	(28)
NOPAT		42	48	54	62	71	81
add depreciation	1	1	1	2	2	2	2
less capex	(5)	(49)	(56)	(49)	(38)	(23)	(3)
less working-capital build		—	(26)	(30)	(34)	(39)	(44)
Free cash flow to firm	(18)	—	(33)	(22)	(8)	12	36
Discount factor			0.949	0.855	0.770	0.694	0.625
Present value			(32)	(19)	(6)	8	23

History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.

The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 34, dividends at 0% of profit

₹ crore	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Income statement
EBIT	56	64	73	84	95	109
Interest at 4.9% on debt		(2)	(2)	(2)	(2)	(2)
Profit before tax		63	72	82	94	107
Profit after tax	44	47	53	61	70	79
Dividends	0	0	0	0	0	0
Balance sheet, year end
Cash	212	178	154	146	156	191
Working capital	186	212	242	276	314	358
Net block and other assets	339	394	441	477	497	498
Debt	34	34	34	34	34	34
Equity	681	727	780	841	911	990
Balance check	0	(0)	0	0	0	(0)
Cash flow
From operations		22	25	29	33	38
Investing (capex)		(56)	(49)	(38)	(23)	(3)
Financing (dividends)		0	0	0	0	0
Net change in cash		(34)	(24)	(9)	10	35
Free cash flow to equity		(34)	(24)	(9)	10	35

Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.

Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share

Scenario	Template	Growth	Margin	Rate	Terminal	₹ / share	vs CMP
Base · editing	DCF	14%	13.4%	11.00%	5%	₹45	(79.8)%

A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.