₹27per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹27implied FY26 P/E 38.4× · EV/EBITDA 1.8×
Against CMP ₹135.20−79.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3146%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹24₹34
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹123₹320
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 72 |
| PV of terminal value | 61 |
| Enterprise value | 133 |
| less net debt | 23 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 156 |
| ÷ 5.72 crore shares | ₹27 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 28 | 29 | 30 | 32 | 34 |
| 10.50% | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 |
| 11.00% | 26 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 30 |
| 11.50% | 25 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 |
| 12.00% | 24 | 25 | 25 | 26 | 27 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹135.20; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 15 · 27 · 40 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.99 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.14 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.01 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 433 | 426 | 419 | 413 | 407 | 401 | 395 | 389 |
| growth % | — | (1.5) | (1.6) | (1.5) | (1.5) | (1.5) | (1.5) | (1.5) |
| EBITDA | 85 | 82 | 72 | 71 | 70 | 69 | 68 | 67 |
| margin % | 19.6 | 19.2 | 17.2 | 17.2 | 17.2 | 17.2 | 17.2 | 17.2 |
| less depreciation | (38) | (44) | (52) | (51) | (50) | (49) | (49) | (48) |
| EBIT | 47 | 37 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 19 | 19 |
| less tax on EBIT | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | ||
| NOPAT | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 14 | ||
| add depreciation | 38 | 44 | 52 | 51 | 50 | 49 | 49 | 48 |
| less capex | (49) | (37) | (39) | (38) | (43) | (48) | (53) | (57) |
| less working-capital build | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | (13) | 31 | — | 29 | 23 | 17 | 11 | 6 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 27 | 20 | 13 | 8 | 4 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 19 | 19 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Profit before tax | 20 | 20 | 20 | 19 | 19 | |
| Profit after tax | 12 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 24 | 53 | 76 | 93 | 104 | 110 |
| Working capital | 98 | 97 | 95 | 94 | 92 | 91 |
| Net block and other assets | 768 | 756 | 749 | 748 | 752 | 762 |
| Debt | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Equity | 472 | 487 | 502 | 516 | 530 | 544 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 67 | 66 | 65 | 64 | 63 | |
| Investing (capex) | (38) | (43) | (48) | (53) | (57) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 29 | 23 | 17 | 11 | 6 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 29 | 23 | 17 | 11 | 6 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -1.5% | 17.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹27 | (79.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.