Models
STAR CEMENT LIMITEDSTARCEMENTCement & Cement Products
₹190per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹190implied FY26 P/E 20.8× · EV/EBITDA 8.9×
Against CMP ₹195.02−2.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies20.4%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3181%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹141₹287
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹180₹281
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,574 |
| PV of terminal value | 6,673 |
| Enterprise value | 8,246 |
| less net debt | (573) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 7,673 |
| ÷ 40.42 crore shares | ₹190 |
81% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 197 | 213 | 233 | 257 | 287 |
| 10.50% | 180 | 193 | 209 | 229 | 253 |
| 11.00% | 165 | 176 | 190 | 206 | 225 |
| 11.50% | 152 | 162 | 173 | 186 | 202 |
| 12.00% | 141 | 149 | 159 | 170 | 183 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹195.02; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 129 · 187 · 258 |
| Draws below the CMP | 57% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.81 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.38 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.37 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,705 | 2,911 | 3,163 | 3,776 | 4,513 | 5,393 | 6,445 | 7,701 | 9,203 |
| growth % | 21.7 | 7.6 | 8.7 | 19.4 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 |
| EBITDA | 468 | 556 | 579 | 925 | 1,106 | 1,321 | 1,579 | 1,887 | 2,255 |
| margin % | 17.3 | 19.1 | 18.3 | 24.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 |
| less depreciation | (131) | (147) | (332) | (365) | (438) | (523) | (625) | (747) | (893) |
| EBIT | 337 | 410 | 247 | 559 | 668 | 798 | 954 | 1,140 | 1,362 |
| less tax on EBIT | (149) | (178) | (212) | (254) | (303) | (362) | |||
| NOPAT | 411 | 490 | 586 | 700 | 837 | 1,000 | |||
| add depreciation | 131 | 147 | 332 | 365 | 438 | 523 | 625 | 747 | 893 |
| less capex | (572) | (1,036) | (581) | (493) | (591) | (687) | (797) | (925) | (1,071) |
| less working-capital build | — | (88) | (105) | (125) | (150) | (179) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (197) | (547) | (285) | — | 249 | 317 | 403 | 510 | 642 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 237 | 271 | 310 | 354 | 402 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 586, dividends at 20.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 559 | 668 | 798 | 954 | 1,140 | 1,362 |
| Interest at 9.5% on debt | (56) | (56) | (56) | (56) | (56) | |
| Profit before tax | 612 | 742 | 898 | 1,084 | 1,306 | |
| Profit after tax | 393 | 449 | 545 | 659 | 796 | 959 |
| Dividends | (81) | (92) | (112) | (135) | (163) | (197) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 13 | 129 | 294 | 521 | 827 | 1,232 |
| Working capital | 450 | 538 | 642 | 768 | 917 | 1,096 |
| Net block and other assets | 4,184 | 4,337 | 4,501 | 4,673 | 4,850 | 5,029 |
| Debt | 586 | 586 | 586 | 586 | 586 | 586 |
| Equity | 3,188 | 3,545 | 3,979 | 4,503 | 5,135 | 5,898 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 799 | 963 | 1,159 | 1,393 | 1,673 | |
| Investing (capex) | (591) | (687) | (797) | (925) | (1,071) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (92) | (112) | (135) | (163) | (197) | |
| Net change in cash | 116 | 165 | 227 | 306 | 405 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 208 | 277 | 362 | 469 | 602 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 19.5% | 24.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹190 | (2.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.