Models
STEEL AUTHORITY OF INDIASAILFerrous Metals
₹-27per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(27)implied FY26 P/E (2.6)× · EV/EBITDA 1.8×
Against CMP ₹179.00−115.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3190%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(40)₹(1)
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹124₹210
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 2,016 |
| PV of terminal value | 18,670 |
| Enterprise value | 20,686 |
| less net debt | (31,899) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (11,213) |
| ÷ 413.05 crore shares | ₹(27) |
90% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (25) | (21) | (15) | (9) | (1) |
| 10.50% | (30) | (26) | (22) | (17) | (10) |
| 11.00% | (34) | (31) | (27) | (23) | (18) |
| 11.50% | (37) | (35) | (32) | (28) | (24) |
| 12.00% | (40) | (38) | (35) | (32) | (29) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹179.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (72) · (28) · 14 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.94 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.27 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.14 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,04,448 | 1,05,378 | 1,02,479 | 1,10,811 | 1,19,676 | 1,29,250 | 1,39,590 | 1,50,757 | 1,62,817 |
| growth % | 0.9 | 0.9 | (2.8) | 8.1 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 8,297 | 10,308 | 10,334 | 11,332 | 12,207 | 13,183 | 14,238 | 15,377 | 16,607 |
| margin % | 7.9 | 9.8 | 10.1 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 |
| less depreciation | (4,964) | (5,278) | (5,651) | (5,988) | (6,462) | (6,979) | (7,538) | (8,141) | (8,792) |
| EBIT | 3,334 | 5,030 | 4,683 | 5,344 | 5,744 | 6,204 | 6,700 | 7,236 | 7,815 |
| less tax on EBIT | (1,486) | (1,597) | (1,725) | (1,863) | (2,012) | (2,173) | |||
| NOPAT | 3,858 | 4,147 | 4,479 | 4,838 | 5,225 | 5,643 | |||
| add depreciation | 4,964 | 5,278 | 5,651 | 5,988 | 6,462 | 6,979 | 7,538 | 8,141 | 8,792 |
| less capex | (3,931) | (4,711) | (6,221) | (8,758) | (9,454) | (9,752) | (10,037) | (10,304) | (10,551) |
| less working-capital build | — | (1,534) | (1,656) | (1,789) | (1,932) | (2,086) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (9,221) | (1,800) | 3,802 | — | (378) | 51 | 550 | 1,129 | 1,798 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (359) | 43 | 424 | 784 | 1,124 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 31,928, dividends at 19.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 5,344 | 5,744 | 6,204 | 6,700 | 7,236 | 7,815 |
| Interest at 6.3% on debt | (2,011) | (2,011) | (2,011) | (2,011) | (2,011) | |
| Profit before tax | 3,733 | 4,193 | 4,689 | 5,225 | 5,804 | |
| Profit after tax | 3,373 | 2,695 | 3,027 | 3,385 | 3,772 | 4,190 |
| Dividends | (661) | (528) | (593) | (664) | (739) | (821) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 29 | (2,330) | (4,325) | (5,891) | (6,953) | (7,429) |
| Working capital | 19,187 | 20,721 | 22,377 | 24,166 | 26,098 | 28,184 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,16,680 | 1,19,672 | 1,22,445 | 1,24,943 | 1,27,107 | 1,28,865 |
| Debt | 31,928 | 31,928 | 31,928 | 31,928 | 31,928 | 31,928 |
| Equity | 60,356 | 62,523 | 64,957 | 67,678 | 70,711 | 74,080 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 7,624 | 8,350 | 9,134 | 9,981 | 10,896 | |
| Investing (capex) | (9,454) | (9,752) | (10,037) | (10,304) | (10,551) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (528) | (593) | (664) | (739) | (821) | |
| Net change in cash | (2,359) | (1,995) | (1,566) | (1,062) | (476) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (1,830) | (1,402) | (902) | (323) | 345 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 10.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(27) | (115.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.