Models
STEEL CITY SECURITIES LTDSTEELCITYCapital Markets
₹83per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹83implied FY26 P/E 7.3× · EV/EBITDA 7.9×
Against CMP ₹90.01−7.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(2.8)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3172%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹64₹121
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹71₹106
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 36 |
| PV of terminal value | 95 |
| Enterprise value | 132 |
| less net debt | (6) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 126 |
| ÷ 1.51 crore shares | ₹83 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 86 | 92 | 100 | 109 | 121 |
| 10.50% | 79 | 85 | 91 | 98 | 107 |
| 11.00% | 74 | 78 | 83 | 89 | 96 |
| 11.50% | 69 | 72 | 77 | 82 | 88 |
| 12.00% | 64 | 68 | 71 | 76 | 80 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹90.01; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 70 · 83 · 99 |
| Draws below the CMP | 73% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.73 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.66 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 55 | 59 | 65 | 62 | 59 | 57 | 54 | 52 | 49 |
| growth % | (14.2) | 8.4 | 10.3 | (4.6) | (4.5) | (4.5) | (4.5) | (4.5) | (4.5) |
| EBITDA | 12 | 14 | 20 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 13 |
| margin % | 21.9 | 23.2 | 30.1 | 26.8 | 26.8 | 26.8 | 26.8 | 26.8 | 26.8 |
| less depreciation | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) |
| EBIT | 11 | 13 | 19 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 |
| less tax on EBIT | (4) | (4) | (4) | (3) | (3) | (3) | |||
| NOPAT | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | |||
| add depreciation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| less capex | (14) | (0) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (2) | (2) | (1) | (1) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 2 | (19) | 1 | — | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 10, dividends at 41.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 16 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 |
| Interest at 12.9% on debt | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Profit before tax | 14 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 11 | |
| Profit after tax | 14 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 |
| Dividends | (6) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 4 | 8 | 13 | 17 | 22 | 26 |
| Working capital | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Net block and other assets | 234 | 235 | 237 | 238 | 238 | 238 |
| Debt | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Equity | 138 | 144 | 150 | 155 | 160 | 165 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | |
| Investing (capex) | (3) | (2) | (2) | (1) | (1) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |
| Net change in cash | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -4.5% | 26.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹83 | (7.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.