Models
STEEL STRIPS WHEELS LTD.SSWLAuto Components
₹257per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹257implied FY26 P/E 19.0× · EV/EBITDA 9.5×
Against CMP ₹371.00−30.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3180%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹184₹403
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹169₹384
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 969 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,890 |
| Enterprise value | 4,859 |
| less net debt | (820) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 4,039 |
| ÷ 15.72 crore shares | ₹257 |
80% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 267 | 292 | 322 | 358 | 403 |
| 10.50% | 242 | 262 | 286 | 315 | 351 |
| 11.00% | 220 | 237 | 257 | 281 | 309 |
| 11.50% | 200 | 215 | 232 | 252 | 275 |
| 12.00% | 184 | 196 | 211 | 227 | 247 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹371.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 176 · 252 · 343 |
| Draws below the CMP | 95% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.84 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.45 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.21 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,041 | 4,357 | 4,429 | 5,183 | 6,064 | 7,095 | 8,301 | 9,712 | 11,363 |
| growth % | — | 7.8 | 1.7 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 |
| EBITDA | 443 | 937 | 484 | 510 | 594 | 695 | 813 | 952 | 1,114 |
| margin % | 11.0 | 21.5 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.8 |
| less depreciation | (80) | (104) | (111) | (136) | (158) | (184) | (216) | (253) | (295) |
| EBIT | 362 | 833 | 373 | 374 | 437 | 511 | 598 | 699 | 818 |
| less tax on EBIT | (94) | (110) | (129) | (151) | (176) | (206) | |||
| NOPAT | 280 | 327 | 382 | 447 | 523 | 612 | |||
| add depreciation | 80 | 104 | 111 | 136 | 158 | 184 | 216 | 253 | 295 |
| less capex | (137) | (383) | (212) | (193) | (224) | (252) | (283) | (317) | (355) |
| less working-capital build | — | (95) | (111) | (130) | (152) | (178) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 211 | (190) | 304 | — | 165 | 203 | 250 | 306 | 375 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 156 | 174 | 192 | 212 | 234 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 826, dividends at 10.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 374 | 437 | 511 | 598 | 699 | 818 |
| Interest at 14.9% on debt | (123) | (123) | (123) | (123) | (123) | |
| Profit before tax | 314 | 388 | 475 | 576 | 695 | |
| Profit after tax | 190 | 235 | 290 | 355 | 431 | 520 |
| Dividends | (20) | (24) | (30) | (37) | (44) | (54) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 6 | 55 | 136 | 257 | 427 | 656 |
| Working capital | 559 | 655 | 766 | 896 | 1,049 | 1,227 |
| Net block and other assets | 3,266 | 3,332 | 3,400 | 3,467 | 3,532 | 3,591 |
| Debt | 826 | 826 | 826 | 826 | 826 | 826 |
| Equity | 1,805 | 2,015 | 2,275 | 2,594 | 2,980 | 3,447 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 297 | 363 | 441 | 531 | 637 | |
| Investing (capex) | (224) | (252) | (283) | (317) | (355) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (24) | (30) | (37) | (44) | (54) | |
| Net change in cash | 49 | 81 | 121 | 170 | 229 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 73 | 111 | 158 | 214 | 283 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 17% | 9.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹257 | (30.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.