Models
STEELCAST LIMITEDSTEELCASIndustrial Products
₹138per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹138implied FY26 P/E 15.4× · EV/EBITDA 12.2×
Against CMP ₹326.95−57.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3180%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹105₹202
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹176₹364
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 279 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,113 |
| Enterprise value | 1,393 |
| less net debt | 1 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,394 |
| ÷ 10.13 crore shares | ₹138 |
80% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 142 | 153 | 166 | 182 | 202 |
| 10.50% | 131 | 140 | 151 | 164 | 179 |
| 11.00% | 121 | 129 | 138 | 148 | 161 |
| 11.50% | 112 | 119 | 127 | 135 | 146 |
| 12.00% | 105 | 111 | 117 | 124 | 133 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹326.95; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 111 · 136 · 168 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.69 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.59 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.33 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 477 | 410 | 376 | 423 | 476 | 536 | 603 | 678 | 763 |
| growth % | 57.9 | (14.1) | (8.2) | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 |
| EBITDA | 114 | 117 | 106 | 114 | 129 | 145 | 163 | 183 | 206 |
| margin % | 23.9 | 28.6 | 28.2 | 27.0 | 27.0 | 27.0 | 27.0 | 27.0 | 27.0 |
| less depreciation | (18) | (18) | (13) | (13) | (14) | (16) | (18) | (20) | (23) |
| EBIT | 96 | 99 | 94 | 101 | 114 | 129 | 145 | 163 | 183 |
| less tax on EBIT | (26) | (29) | (33) | (37) | (41) | (46) | |||
| NOPAT | 76 | 85 | 96 | 108 | 121 | 137 | |||
| add depreciation | 18 | 18 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 23 |
| less capex | (47) | (18) | (17) | (33) | (37) | (36) | (34) | (31) | (27) |
| less working-capital build | — | (15) | (17) | (20) | (22) | (25) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 61 | 50 | 57 | — | 47 | 59 | 72 | 88 | 107 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 45 | 50 | 56 | 61 | 67 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 19.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 101 | 114 | 129 | 145 | 163 | 183 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 114 | 129 | 145 | 163 | 183 | |
| Profit after tax | 87 | 85 | 96 | 108 | 121 | 137 |
| Dividends | (17) | (17) | (19) | (21) | (24) | (27) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1 | 32 | 72 | 122 | 187 | 267 |
| Working capital | 124 | 139 | 157 | 176 | 198 | 223 |
| Net block and other assets | 335 | 358 | 377 | 393 | 404 | 409 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 395 | 463 | 540 | 627 | 724 | 833 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 84 | 95 | 106 | 120 | 135 | |
| Investing (capex) | (37) | (36) | (34) | (31) | (27) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (17) | (19) | (21) | (24) | (27) | |
| Net change in cash | 30 | 40 | 51 | 64 | 80 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 47 | 59 | 72 | 88 | 107 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 12.5% | 27% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹138 | (57.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.