Models
SUDARSHAN COLORNT IND LTDSUDARCOLORChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹206per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹206implied FY26 P/E 10.0× · EV/EBITDA 6.5×
Against CMP ₹377.30−45.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3173%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹174₹270
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹268₹603
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 94 |
| PV of terminal value | 249 |
| Enterprise value | 343 |
| less net debt | 133 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 476 |
| ÷ 2.31 crore shares | ₹206 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 211 | 222 | 235 | 250 | 270 |
| 10.50% | 200 | 209 | 219 | 232 | 247 |
| 11.00% | 190 | 197 | 206 | 217 | 229 |
| 11.50% | 181 | 188 | 195 | 204 | 214 |
| 12.00% | 174 | 180 | 186 | 193 | 202 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹377.30; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 182 · 206 · 236 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.74 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.65 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 766 | 791 | 825 | 781 | 742 | 705 | 669 | 636 | 604 |
| growth % | (8.7) | 3.2 | 4.3 | (5.4) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 55 | 72 | 73 | 53 | 50 | 48 | 46 | 43 | 41 |
| margin % | 7.2 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 |
| less depreciation | (20) | (23) | (21) | (20) | (19) | (18) | (17) | (16) | (15) |
| EBIT | 35 | 49 | 52 | 33 | 32 | 30 | 29 | 27 | 26 |
| less tax on EBIT | (8) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (6) | (6) | |||
| NOPAT | 26 | 25 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 20 | |||
| add depreciation | 20 | 23 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 15 |
| less capex | (16) | (17) | (12) | (29) | (27) | (25) | (22) | (20) | (18) |
| less working-capital build | — | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 20 | 78 | 99 | — | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 23 | 21 | 19 | 17 | 15 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 33 | 32 | 30 | 29 | 27 | 26 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 32 | 30 | 29 | 27 | 26 | |
| Profit after tax | 45 | 25 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 20 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 133 | 158 | 182 | 206 | 230 | 254 |
| Working capital | 169 | 161 | 153 | 145 | 138 | 131 |
| Net block and other assets | 502 | 511 | 518 | 524 | 528 | 531 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 570 | 595 | 618 | 640 | 662 | 682 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 52 | 49 | 47 | 44 | 42 | |
| Investing (capex) | (27) | (25) | (22) | (20) | (18) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 6.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹206 | (45.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.