Models
SUDEEP PHARMA LIMITEDSUDEEPPHRMChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹195per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹195implied FY26 P/E 11.8× · EV/EBITDA 10.5×
Against CMP ₹1,212.00−83.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3184%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹144₹296
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹524₹1,378
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 370 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,949 |
| Enterprise value | 2,319 |
| less net debt | (122) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,197 |
| ÷ 11.29 crore shares | ₹195 |
84% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 202 | 219 | 240 | 265 | 296 |
| 10.50% | 184 | 198 | 215 | 235 | 260 |
| 11.00% | 168 | 180 | 195 | 211 | 231 |
| 11.50% | 155 | 165 | 177 | 191 | 207 |
| 12.00% | 144 | 152 | 162 | 174 | 188 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,212.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 156 · 192 · 239 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.71 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.64 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.14 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 642 | 694 | 749 | 809 | 874 | 944 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 222 | 240 | 259 | 280 | 302 | 327 |
| margin % | 34.6 | 34.6 | 34.6 | 34.6 | 34.6 | 34.6 |
| less depreciation | (15) | (16) | (17) | (19) | (20) | (22) |
| EBIT | 207 | 224 | 242 | 261 | 282 | 305 |
| less tax on EBIT | (49) | (53) | (57) | (62) | (67) | (72) |
| NOPAT | 158 | 171 | 185 | 200 | 216 | 233 |
| add depreciation | 15 | 16 | 17 | 19 | 20 | 22 |
| less capex | (118) | (128) | (109) | (86) | (58) | (26) |
| less working-capital build | — | (30) | (32) | (35) | (38) | (41) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 29 | 61 | 98 | 140 | 188 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 28 | 52 | 75 | 97 | 117 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 148, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 207 | 224 | 242 | 261 | 282 | 305 |
| Interest at 5.1% on debt | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | |
| Profit before tax | 216 | 234 | 254 | 275 | 297 | |
| Profit after tax | 173 | 165 | 179 | 194 | 210 | 227 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 27 | 50 | 106 | 198 | 332 | 513 |
| Working capital | 375 | 405 | 438 | 473 | 510 | 551 |
| Net block and other assets | 773 | 885 | 976 | 1,043 | 1,081 | 1,085 |
| Debt | 148 | 148 | 148 | 148 | 148 | 148 |
| Equity | 898 | 1,063 | 1,243 | 1,436 | 1,646 | 1,873 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 151 | 164 | 177 | 192 | 208 | |
| Investing (capex) | (128) | (109) | (86) | (58) | (26) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 24 | 55 | 92 | 134 | 182 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 24 | 55 | 92 | 134 | 182 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 34.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹195 | (83.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.