Models
SUMITOMO CHEM INDIA LTDSUMICHEMFertilizers & Agrochemicals
₹131per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹131implied FY26 P/E 11.3× · EV/EBITDA 9.9×
Against CMP ₹476.05−72.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3173%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹103₹188
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹363₹617
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,744 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,750 |
| Enterprise value | 6,494 |
| less net debt | 67 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 6,561 |
| ÷ 49.91 crore shares | ₹131 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 136 | 145 | 157 | 170 | 188 |
| 10.50% | 126 | 134 | 143 | 154 | 168 |
| 11.00% | 117 | 124 | 131 | 141 | 152 |
| 11.50% | 110 | 115 | 122 | 129 | 138 |
| 12.00% | 103 | 108 | 114 | 120 | 127 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹476.05; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 111 · 131 · 155 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.70 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.67 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.06 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,511 | 2,844 | 3,149 | 3,238 | 3,335 | 3,436 | 3,539 | 3,645 | 3,754 |
| growth % | 14.6 | (19.0) | 10.7 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| EBITDA | 667 | 475 | 632 | 655 | 674 | 694 | 715 | 736 | 758 |
| margin % | 19.0 | 16.7 | 20.1 | 20.2 | 20.2 | 20.2 | 20.2 | 20.2 | 20.2 |
| less depreciation | (52) | (62) | (66) | (66) | (67) | (69) | (71) | (73) | (75) |
| EBIT | 615 | 412 | 566 | 589 | 607 | 625 | 644 | 663 | 683 |
| less tax on EBIT | (150) | (154) | (159) | (164) | (168) | (174) | |||
| NOPAT | 439 | 453 | 466 | 480 | 495 | 510 | |||
| add depreciation | 52 | 62 | 66 | 66 | 67 | 69 | 71 | 73 | 75 |
| less capex | (120) | (66) | (29) | (44) | (47) | (57) | (67) | (78) | (90) |
| less working-capital build | — | (33) | (34) | (35) | (36) | (37) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 270 | 694 | 423 | — | 440 | 444 | 449 | 453 | 457 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 417 | 380 | 346 | 315 | 286 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 2, dividends at 11% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 589 | 607 | 625 | 644 | 663 | 683 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Profit before tax | 607 | 625 | 644 | 663 | 683 | |
| Profit after tax | 543 | 453 | 466 | 480 | 495 | 510 |
| Dividends | (60) | (50) | (51) | (53) | (54) | (56) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 69 | 459 | 852 | 1,248 | 1,646 | 2,048 |
| Working capital | 1,105 | 1,138 | 1,172 | 1,207 | 1,243 | 1,280 |
| Net block and other assets | 3,301 | 3,281 | 3,269 | 3,265 | 3,271 | 3,286 |
| Debt | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Equity | 3,394 | 3,797 | 4,212 | 4,639 | 5,080 | 5,533 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 486 | 501 | 516 | 531 | 547 | |
| Investing (capex) | (47) | (57) | (67) | (78) | (90) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (50) | (51) | (53) | (54) | (56) | |
| Net change in cash | 390 | 393 | 396 | 399 | 401 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 440 | 444 | 449 | 453 | 457 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 3% | 20.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹131 | (72.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.