Models
SUN PHARMA ADV.RES.CO.LTDSPARCPharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
₹2,274per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹2,274implied FY26 P/E 46.6× · EV/EBITDA 46.9×
Against CMP ₹196.54+1056.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(20.0)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3182%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,721₹3,378
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹108₹289
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 13,613 |
| PV of terminal value | 60,723 |
| Enterprise value | 74,336 |
| less net debt | (555) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 73,781 |
| ÷ 32.45 crore shares | ₹2,274 |
82% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 2,353 | 2,539 | 2,763 | 3,036 | 3,378 |
| 10.50% | 2,158 | 2,313 | 2,496 | 2,716 | 2,984 |
| 11.00% | 1,991 | 2,121 | 2,274 | 2,454 | 2,669 |
| 11.50% | 1,847 | 1,958 | 2,086 | 2,236 | 2,412 |
| 12.00% | 1,721 | 1,817 | 1,926 | 2,051 | 2,198 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹196.54; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,638 · 2,266 · 3,074 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.85 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.40 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.28 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 76 | 72 | 1,879 | 2,443 | 3,176 | 4,129 | 5,367 | 6,977 |
| growth % | — | (5.0) | 2518.3 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | (402) | (323) | 1,586 | 2,062 | 2,680 | 3,484 | 4,530 | 5,889 |
| margin % | (532.2) | (450.2) | 84.4 | 84.4 | 84.4 | 84.4 | 84.4 | 84.4 |
| less depreciation | (13) | (12) | (10) | (12) | (16) | (21) | (27) | (35) |
| EBIT | (415) | (336) | 1,576 | 2,050 | 2,664 | 3,464 | 4,503 | 5,854 |
| less tax on EBIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| NOPAT | 1,576 | 2,050 | 2,664 | 3,464 | 4,503 | 5,854 | ||
| add depreciation | 13 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 16 | 21 | 27 | 35 |
| less capex | (27) | (10) | (24) | (32) | (36) | (39) | (42) | (42) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | (456) | (371) | — | 2,030 | 2,645 | 3,445 | 4,488 | 5,847 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 1,927 | 2,261 | 2,654 | 3,115 | 3,656 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 556, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,576 | 2,050 | 2,664 | 3,464 | 4,503 | 5,854 |
| Interest at 8.4% on debt | (47) | (47) | (47) | (47) | (47) | |
| Profit before tax | 2,003 | 2,618 | 3,417 | 4,456 | 5,807 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,556 | 2,003 | 2,618 | 3,417 | 4,456 | 5,807 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1 | 1,985 | 4,582 | 7,981 | 12,423 | 18,223 |
| Working capital | (89) | (89) | (89) | (89) | (89) | (89) |
| Net block and other assets | 2,259 | 2,278 | 2,298 | 2,317 | 2,331 | 2,338 |
| Debt | 556 | 556 | 556 | 556 | 556 | 556 |
| Equity | 1,339 | 3,342 | 5,959 | 9,377 | 13,833 | 19,640 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 2,015 | 2,634 | 3,438 | 4,483 | 5,842 | |
| Investing (capex) | (32) | (36) | (39) | (42) | (42) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 1,983 | 2,598 | 3,399 | 4,442 | 5,800 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 1,983 | 2,598 | 3,399 | 4,442 | 5,800 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 84.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹2,274 | 1056.8% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.