Models
SUN PHARMACEUTICAL IND LSUNPHARMAPharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
₹763per share · Base Model Note
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹763implied FY26 P/E 15.1× · EV/EBITDA 10.8×
Against CMP ₹1,840.00−58.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹594₹1,099
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,548₹2,047
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 40,780 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,36,498 |
| Enterprise value | 1,77,278 |
| less net debt | 5,689 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,82,967 |
| ÷ 239.93 crore shares | ₹763 |
77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 787 | 844 | 912 | 995 | 1,099 |
| 10.50% | 728 | 775 | 830 | 897 | 979 |
| 11.00% | 677 | 716 | 763 | 817 | 883 |
| 11.50% | 633 | 666 | 705 | 751 | 804 |
| 12.00% | 594 | 623 | 656 | 694 | 739 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,840.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 616 · 754 · 926 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.75 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.56 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.24 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 43,886 | 48,497 | 52,578 | 58,462 | 64,893 | 72,031 | 79,954 | 88,749 | 98,512 |
| growth % | 13.5 | 10.5 | 8.4 | 11.2 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 |
| EBITDA | 11,475 | 12,529 | 14,594 | 16,424 | 18,235 | 20,241 | 22,467 | 24,939 | 27,682 |
| margin % | 26.1 | 25.8 | 27.8 | 28.1 | 28.1 | 28.1 | 28.1 | 28.1 | 28.1 |
| less depreciation | (2,529) | (2,557) | (2,575) | (2,938) | (3,245) | (3,602) | (3,998) | (4,437) | (4,926) |
| EBIT | 8,946 | 9,972 | 12,018 | 13,486 | 14,990 | 16,639 | 18,469 | 20,501 | 22,756 |
| less tax on EBIT | (3,169) | (3,523) | (3,910) | (4,340) | (4,818) | (5,348) | |||
| NOPAT | 10,317 | 11,468 | 12,729 | 14,129 | 15,683 | 17,409 | |||
| add depreciation | 2,529 | 2,557 | 2,575 | 2,938 | 3,245 | 3,602 | 3,998 | 4,437 | 4,926 |
| less capex | (2,086) | (2,202) | (2,129) | (3,609) | (4,023) | (4,430) | (4,877) | (5,369) | (5,911) |
| less working-capital build | — | (2,161) | (2,398) | (2,662) | (2,955) | (3,280) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 2,874 | 9,933 | 11,944 | — | 8,528 | 9,502 | 10,587 | 11,796 | 13,143 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 8,094 | 8,125 | 8,156 | 8,187 | 8,218 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 4,082, dividends at 34.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 13,486 | 14,990 | 16,639 | 18,469 | 20,501 | 22,756 |
| Interest at 11.4% on debt | (465) | (465) | (465) | (465) | (465) | |
| Profit before tax | 14,525 | 16,174 | 18,004 | 20,036 | 22,291 | |
| Profit after tax | 11,479 | 11,112 | 12,373 | 13,773 | 15,327 | 17,053 |
| Dividends | (3,938) | (3,811) | (4,244) | (4,724) | (5,257) | (5,849) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 9,771 | 14,131 | 19,034 | 24,541 | 30,724 | 37,662 |
| Working capital | 19,669 | 21,830 | 24,228 | 26,890 | 29,845 | 33,126 |
| Net block and other assets | 79,346 | 80,125 | 80,953 | 81,832 | 82,764 | 83,749 |
| Debt | 4,082 | 4,082 | 4,082 | 4,082 | 4,082 | 4,082 |
| Equity | 83,880 | 91,180 | 99,309 | 1,08,358 | 1,18,428 | 1,29,632 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 12,195 | 13,576 | 15,109 | 16,810 | 18,698 | |
| Investing (capex) | (4,023) | (4,430) | (4,877) | (5,369) | (5,911) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (3,811) | (4,244) | (4,724) | (5,257) | (5,849) | |
| Net change in cash | 4,361 | 4,902 | 5,507 | 6,183 | 6,938 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 8,172 | 9,146 | 10,231 | 11,440 | 12,787 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 11% | 28.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹763 | (58.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.