₹484per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹484implied FY26 P/E 12.5× · EV/EBITDA 8.8×
Against CMP ₹475.15+1.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies7.4%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3168%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹387₹676
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹448₹661
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 6,030 |
| PV of terminal value | 12,787 |
| Enterprise value | 18,818 |
| less net debt | 243 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 19,061 |
| ÷ 39.41 crore shares | ₹484 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 498 | 531 | 570 | 617 | 676 |
| 10.50% | 464 | 491 | 523 | 561 | 607 |
| 11.00% | 435 | 457 | 484 | 515 | 552 |
| 11.50% | 409 | 428 | 451 | 477 | 507 |
| 12.00% | 387 | 403 | 422 | 444 | 470 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹475.15; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 388 · 480 · 589 |
| Draws below the CMP | 48% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.80 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.50 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.25 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,772 | 4,282 | 4,015 | 4,335 | 4,682 | 5,056 | 5,461 | 5,897 | 6,369 |
| growth % | 5.2 | 13.5 | (6.2) | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 2,393 | 2,638 | 2,077 | 2,141 | 2,313 | 2,498 | 2,698 | 2,913 | 3,146 |
| margin % | 63.4 | 61.6 | 51.7 | 49.4 | 49.4 | 49.4 | 49.4 | 49.4 | 49.4 |
| less depreciation | (486) | (9) | (539) | (723) | (782) | (844) | (912) | (985) | (1,064) |
| EBIT | 1,907 | 2,630 | 1,538 | 1,419 | 1,531 | 1,653 | 1,786 | 1,928 | 2,083 |
| less tax on EBIT | (359) | (387) | (418) | (452) | (488) | (527) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,060 | 1,144 | 1,235 | 1,334 | 1,441 | 1,556 | |||
| add depreciation | 486 | 9 | 539 | 723 | 782 | 844 | 912 | 985 | 1,064 |
| less capex | (570) | (511) | (29) | (84) | (89) | (325) | (599) | (914) | (1,276) |
| less working-capital build | — | (82) | (89) | (96) | (104) | (112) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 1,526 | 1,660 | 1,634 | — | 1,754 | 1,665 | 1,551 | 1,408 | 1,231 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 1,665 | 1,424 | 1,195 | 977 | 770 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,419 | 1,531 | 1,653 | 1,786 | 1,928 | 2,083 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 1,531 | 1,653 | 1,786 | 1,928 | 2,083 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 1,144 | 1,235 | 1,334 | 1,441 | 1,556 |
| Dividends | (493) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 243 | 1,997 | 3,663 | 5,213 | 6,621 | 7,852 |
| Working capital | 1,027 | 1,109 | 1,198 | 1,294 | 1,398 | 1,509 |
| Net block and other assets | 12,571 | 11,878 | 11,359 | 11,046 | 10,976 | 11,188 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 12,660 | 13,803 | 15,038 | 16,372 | 17,813 | 19,369 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,843 | 1,991 | 2,150 | 2,322 | 2,508 | |
| Investing (capex) | (89) | (325) | (599) | (914) | (1,276) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 1,754 | 1,665 | 1,551 | 1,408 | 1,231 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 1,754 | 1,665 | 1,551 | 1,408 | 1,231 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 49.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹484 | 1.8% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.