Models
SUNDARAM CLAYTON LIMITEDSUNCLAYAuto Components
₹940per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹940implied FY26 P/E 8.3× · EV/EBITDA 5.4×
Against CMP ₹1,303.00−27.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies1.9%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3172%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹619₹1,580
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,113₹1,942
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 947 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,377 |
| Enterprise value | 3,325 |
| less net debt | (1,252) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,073 |
| ÷ 2.20 crore shares | ₹940 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 988 | 1,096 | 1,225 | 1,382 | 1,580 |
| 10.50% | 875 | 964 | 1,070 | 1,196 | 1,351 |
| 11.00% | 777 | 853 | 940 | 1,044 | 1,168 |
| 11.50% | 693 | 757 | 831 | 917 | 1,019 |
| 12.00% | 619 | 674 | 737 | 810 | 894 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,303.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 660 · 943 · 1,265 |
| Draws below the CMP | 92% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.80 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.57 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,415 | 2,259 | 2,026 | 1,924 | 1,828 | 1,737 | 1,650 | 1,567 |
| growth % | — | 59.6 | (10.3) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 29 | 291 | 619 | 589 | 559 | 531 | 505 | 480 |
| margin % | 2.1 | 12.9 | 30.6 | 30.6 | 30.6 | 30.6 | 30.6 | 30.6 |
| less depreciation | (103) | (173) | (206) | (196) | (186) | (177) | (168) | (160) |
| EBIT | (74) | 118 | 414 | 393 | 373 | 354 | 337 | 320 |
| less tax on EBIT | (96) | (91) | (86) | (82) | (78) | (74) | ||
| NOPAT | 318 | 302 | 287 | 272 | 259 | 246 | ||
| add depreciation | 103 | 173 | 206 | 196 | 186 | 177 | 168 | 160 |
| less capex | (273) | (579) | (275) | (262) | (242) | (224) | (208) | (192) |
| less working-capital build | — | 18 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 15 | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | (228) | (589) | — | 255 | 248 | 242 | 235 | 229 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 242 | 212 | 186 | 163 | 143 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,296, dividends at 2.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 414 | 393 | 373 | 354 | 337 | 320 |
| Interest at 7.7% on debt | (100) | (100) | (100) | (100) | (100) | |
| Profit before tax | 293 | 273 | 254 | 237 | 220 | |
| Profit after tax | 252 | 225 | 210 | 196 | 182 | 169 |
| Dividends | (5) | (5) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 44 | 218 | 385 | 546 | 701 | 849 |
| Working capital | 368 | 350 | 333 | 316 | 300 | 285 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,869 | 2,935 | 2,991 | 3,038 | 3,077 | 3,109 |
| Debt | 1,296 | 1,296 | 1,296 | 1,296 | 1,296 | 1,296 |
| Equity | 1,295 | 1,516 | 1,721 | 1,913 | 2,091 | 2,257 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 440 | 414 | 389 | 366 | 344 | |
| Investing (capex) | (262) | (242) | (224) | (208) | (192) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (5) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |
| Net change in cash | 173 | 167 | 161 | 155 | 149 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 178 | 172 | 165 | 159 | 152 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 30.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹940 | (27.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.