Models
SUNDRAM FASTENERS LTDSUNDRMFASTAuto Components
₹311per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹311implied FY26 P/E 10.7× · EV/EBITDA 7.2×
Against CMP ₹1,281.00−75.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹234₹463
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹730₹1,347
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,613 |
| PV of terminal value | 5,431 |
| Enterprise value | 7,044 |
| less net debt | (518) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 6,526 |
| ÷ 21.01 crore shares | ₹311 |
77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 322 | 348 | 378 | 416 | 463 |
| 10.50% | 295 | 316 | 341 | 372 | 409 |
| 11.00% | 272 | 290 | 311 | 335 | 365 |
| 11.50% | 252 | 267 | 285 | 305 | 330 |
| 12.00% | 234 | 247 | 262 | 280 | 300 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,281.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 237 · 308 · 388 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.83 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.51 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.05 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5,663 | 5,666 | 5,955 | 6,289 | 6,635 | 7,000 | 7,385 | 7,791 | 8,219 |
| growth % | 15.5 | 0.1 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| EBITDA | 853 | 887 | 944 | 983 | 1,035 | 1,092 | 1,152 | 1,215 | 1,282 |
| margin % | 15.1 | 15.6 | 15.9 | 15.6 | 15.6 | 15.6 | 15.6 | 15.6 | 15.6 |
| less depreciation | (198) | (213) | (224) | (236) | (252) | (266) | (281) | (296) | (312) |
| EBIT | 655 | 673 | 720 | 747 | 783 | 826 | 871 | 919 | 970 |
| less tax on EBIT | (185) | (194) | (205) | (216) | (228) | (241) | |||
| NOPAT | 562 | 589 | 621 | 655 | 691 | 729 | |||
| add depreciation | 198 | 213 | 224 | 236 | 252 | 266 | 281 | 296 | 312 |
| less capex | (239) | (400) | (396) | (372) | (391) | (390) | (386) | (381) | (375) |
| less working-capital build | — | (116) | (123) | (129) | (136) | (144) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 230 | 189 | 28 | — | 333 | 375 | 420 | 470 | 523 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 316 | 321 | 324 | 326 | 327 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 598, dividends at 28.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 747 | 783 | 826 | 871 | 919 | 970 |
| Interest at 5.5% on debt | (33) | (33) | (33) | (33) | (33) | |
| Profit before tax | 750 | 793 | 838 | 886 | 937 | |
| Profit after tax | 591 | 564 | 596 | 631 | 667 | 705 |
| Dividends | (169) | (161) | (170) | (180) | (190) | (201) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 81 | 229 | 409 | 625 | 880 | 1,177 |
| Working capital | 2,112 | 2,229 | 2,351 | 2,481 | 2,617 | 2,761 |
| Net block and other assets | 3,744 | 3,883 | 4,007 | 4,113 | 4,198 | 4,260 |
| Debt | 598 | 598 | 598 | 598 | 598 | 598 |
| Equity | 4,298 | 4,701 | 5,127 | 5,578 | 6,055 | 6,559 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 700 | 740 | 782 | 826 | 873 | |
| Investing (capex) | (391) | (390) | (386) | (381) | (375) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (161) | (170) | (180) | (190) | (201) | |
| Net change in cash | 148 | 180 | 216 | 255 | 297 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 308 | 350 | 396 | 445 | 498 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 5.5% | 15.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹311 | (75.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.