Models
SUNFLAG IRON AND STEEL COSUNFLAGIndustrial Products
₹160per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹160implied FY26 P/E 14.1× · EV/EBITDA 6.8×
Against CMP ₹338.10−52.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹121₹240
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹192₹428
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 755 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,431 |
| Enterprise value | 3,185 |
| less net debt | (293) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,892 |
| ÷ 18.02 crore shares | ₹160 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 166 | 180 | 196 | 216 | 240 |
| 10.50% | 152 | 163 | 177 | 192 | 212 |
| 11.00% | 140 | 150 | 160 | 173 | 189 |
| 11.50% | 130 | 138 | 147 | 158 | 170 |
| 12.00% | 121 | 127 | 135 | 144 | 155 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹338.10; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 115 · 159 · 207 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.88 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.43 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.07 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,488 | 3,415 | 3,536 | 3,939 | 4,392 | 4,898 | 5,461 | 6,089 | 6,789 |
| growth % | 29.3 | (2.1) | 3.5 | 11.4 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 |
| EBITDA | 1,639 | 375 | 389 | 468 | 523 | 583 | 650 | 725 | 808 |
| margin % | 47.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 11.9 |
| less depreciation | (81) | (103) | (104) | (113) | (127) | (142) | (158) | (177) | (197) |
| EBIT | 1,558 | 272 | 285 | 355 | 395 | 441 | 491 | 548 | 611 |
| less tax on EBIT | (117) | (130) | (145) | (162) | (180) | (201) | |||
| NOPAT | 238 | 265 | 296 | 330 | 368 | 410 | |||
| add depreciation | 81 | 103 | 104 | 113 | 127 | 142 | 158 | 177 | 197 |
| less capex | (168) | (126) | (80) | (128) | (141) | (160) | (182) | (208) | (236) |
| less working-capital build | — | (88) | (98) | (110) | (122) | (137) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 109 | 119 | 107 | — | 164 | 179 | 196 | 214 | 234 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 155 | 153 | 151 | 149 | 146 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 475, dividends at 6.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 355 | 395 | 441 | 491 | 548 | 611 |
| Interest at 13.8% on debt | (65) | (65) | (65) | (65) | (65) | |
| Profit before tax | 330 | 375 | 426 | 482 | 546 | |
| Profit after tax | 202 | 221 | 252 | 286 | 324 | 366 |
| Dividends | (13) | (15) | (17) | (19) | (21) | (24) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 182 | 287 | 406 | 539 | 688 | 854 |
| Working capital | 770 | 858 | 956 | 1,066 | 1,189 | 1,325 |
| Net block and other assets | 10,341 | 10,354 | 10,372 | 10,396 | 10,427 | 10,467 |
| Debt | 475 | 475 | 475 | 475 | 475 | 475 |
| Equity | 8,874 | 9,081 | 9,316 | 9,583 | 9,885 | 10,227 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 260 | 295 | 334 | 378 | 426 | |
| Investing (capex) | (141) | (160) | (182) | (208) | (236) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (15) | (17) | (19) | (21) | (24) | |
| Net change in cash | 105 | 119 | 133 | 149 | 166 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 120 | 135 | 152 | 170 | 190 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 11.5% | 11.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹160 | (52.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.