Models
SUPREME PETROCHEM LIMITEDSPLPETROChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹287per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹287implied FY26 P/E 11.1× · EV/EBITDA 10.0×
Against CMP ₹820.30−65.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3180%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹223₹415
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹462₹979
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,043 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,064 |
| Enterprise value | 5,107 |
| less net debt | 289 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 5,396 |
| ÷ 18.80 crore shares | ₹287 |
80% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 296 | 318 | 344 | 375 | 415 |
| 10.50% | 274 | 292 | 313 | 338 | 369 |
| 11.00% | 254 | 269 | 287 | 308 | 333 |
| 11.50% | 238 | 250 | 265 | 282 | 303 |
| 12.00% | 223 | 234 | 247 | 261 | 278 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹820.30; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 235 · 284 · 346 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.71 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.60 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.28 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5,406 | 5,839 | 6,306 | 6,810 | 7,355 | 7,944 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 511 | 555 | 599 | 647 | 699 | 755 |
| margin % | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 |
| less depreciation | (92) | (99) | (107) | (116) | (125) | (135) |
| EBIT | 419 | 455 | 492 | 531 | 574 | 620 |
| less tax on EBIT | (111) | (120) | (130) | (140) | (151) | (164) |
| NOPAT | 309 | 335 | 362 | 391 | 422 | 456 |
| add depreciation | 92 | 99 | 107 | 116 | 125 | 135 |
| less capex | (209) | (228) | (217) | (202) | (184) | (162) |
| less working-capital build | — | (28) | (30) | (32) | (35) | (38) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 179 | 223 | 272 | 328 | 391 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 170 | 190 | 210 | 228 | 245 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 7, dividends at 57.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 419 | 455 | 492 | 531 | 574 | 620 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Profit before tax | 455 | 491 | 531 | 573 | 619 | |
| Profit after tax | 329 | 335 | 362 | 391 | 422 | 456 |
| Dividends | (188) | (191) | (206) | (223) | (241) | (260) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 296 | 284 | 300 | 349 | 435 | 566 |
| Working capital | 348 | 376 | 406 | 438 | 473 | 510 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,845 | 2,974 | 3,083 | 3,170 | 3,229 | 3,256 |
| Debt | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Equity | 2,378 | 2,521 | 2,676 | 2,844 | 3,025 | 3,220 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 406 | 439 | 474 | 512 | 553 | |
| Investing (capex) | (228) | (217) | (202) | (184) | (162) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (191) | (206) | (223) | (241) | (260) | |
| Net change in cash | (13) | 16 | 49 | 87 | 131 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 179 | 222 | 272 | 328 | 391 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 9.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹287 | (65.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.