Models
SUPRIYA LIFESCIENCE LTDSUPRIYAPharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
₹558per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹558implied FY26 P/E 22.6× · EV/EBITDA 15.2×
Against CMP ₹904.40−38.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies38.3%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3186%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹419₹837
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹546₹1,085
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 643 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,811 |
| Enterprise value | 4,454 |
| less net debt | 38 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 4,492 |
| ÷ 8.05 crore shares | ₹558 |
86% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 578 | 625 | 682 | 751 | 837 |
| 10.50% | 529 | 568 | 614 | 670 | 738 |
| 11.00% | 487 | 520 | 558 | 604 | 658 |
| 11.50% | 450 | 478 | 511 | 549 | 593 |
| 12.00% | 419 | 443 | 470 | 502 | 539 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹904.40; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 436 · 553 · 701 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.62 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.54 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.50 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 461 | 570 | 696 | 828 | 985 | 1,172 | 1,395 | 1,660 | 1,976 |
| growth % | (13.0) | 23.7 | 22.1 | 18.9 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 |
| EBITDA | 129 | 173 | 261 | 294 | 350 | 416 | 495 | 589 | 701 |
| margin % | 28.0 | 30.3 | 37.4 | 35.5 | 35.5 | 35.5 | 35.5 | 35.5 | 35.5 |
| less depreciation | (12) | (16) | (20) | (28) | (33) | (40) | (47) | (56) | (67) |
| EBIT | 117 | 157 | 240 | 265 | 316 | 376 | 448 | 533 | 634 |
| less tax on EBIT | (63) | (76) | (90) | (107) | (127) | (152) | |||
| NOPAT | 202 | 241 | 286 | 341 | 406 | 483 | |||
| add depreciation | 12 | 16 | 20 | 28 | 33 | 40 | 47 | 56 | 67 |
| less capex | (108) | (146) | (162) | (152) | (181) | (174) | (157) | (127) | (81) |
| less working-capital build | — | (51) | (61) | (72) | (86) | (102) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (42) | (32) | 2 | — | 42 | 92 | 159 | 249 | 367 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 40 | 79 | 123 | 173 | 229 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 3.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 265 | 316 | 376 | 448 | 533 | 634 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 316 | 376 | 448 | 533 | 634 | |
| Profit after tax | 209 | 241 | 286 | 341 | 406 | 483 |
| Dividends | (8) | (9) | (11) | (13) | (15) | (18) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 38 | 70 | 151 | 298 | 531 | 880 |
| Working capital | 268 | 319 | 380 | 452 | 538 | 640 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,051 | 1,199 | 1,333 | 1,442 | 1,513 | 1,527 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 1,198 | 1,429 | 1,705 | 2,033 | 2,423 | 2,887 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 223 | 266 | 316 | 376 | 448 | |
| Investing (capex) | (181) | (174) | (157) | (127) | (81) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (9) | (11) | (13) | (15) | (18) | |
| Net change in cash | 33 | 81 | 146 | 234 | 349 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 42 | 92 | 159 | 249 | 367 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 19% | 35.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹558 | (38.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.