Models
SURAJ ESTATE DEVELOPERS LSURAJESTRealty
₹319per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹319implied FY26 P/E 16.1× · EV/EBITDA 9.8×
Against CMP ₹175.01+82.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3173%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹222₹511
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹166₹319
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 574 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,552 |
| Enterprise value | 2,126 |
| less net debt | (602) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,524 |
| ÷ 4.78 crore shares | ₹319 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 333 | 366 | 405 | 452 | 511 |
| 10.50% | 299 | 326 | 358 | 396 | 443 |
| 11.00% | 270 | 293 | 319 | 350 | 388 |
| 11.50% | 245 | 264 | 286 | 312 | 343 |
| 12.00% | 222 | 239 | 258 | 280 | 305 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹175.01; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 252 · 316 · 395 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.71 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.66 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.05 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 412 | 549 | 556 | 561 | 567 | 573 | 578 | 584 |
| growth % | — | 33.2 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| EBITDA | 233 | 203 | 218 | 220 | 222 | 225 | 227 | 229 |
| margin % | 56.5 | 36.9 | 39.2 | 39.2 | 39.2 | 39.2 | 39.2 | 39.2 |
| less depreciation | (4) | (5) | (5) | (4) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) |
| EBIT | 229 | 198 | 213 | 216 | 218 | 220 | 222 | 224 |
| less tax on EBIT | (60) | (61) | (61) | (62) | (63) | (63) | ||
| NOPAT | 153 | 155 | 156 | 158 | 159 | 161 | ||
| add depreciation | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| less capex | (25) | (1) | (3) | (3) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (6) |
| less working-capital build | — | (10) | (10) | (10) | (11) | (11) | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | (16) | (327) | — | 146 | 147 | 148 | 149 | 149 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 138 | 125 | 114 | 103 | 93 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 642, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 213 | 216 | 218 | 220 | 222 | 224 |
| Interest at 16.8% on debt | (108) | (108) | (108) | (108) | (108) | |
| Profit before tax | 108 | 110 | 112 | 114 | 116 | |
| Profit after tax | 90 | 77 | 79 | 80 | 82 | 84 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 40 | 108 | 177 | 248 | 319 | 391 |
| Working capital | 1,024 | 1,035 | 1,045 | 1,056 | 1,066 | 1,077 |
| Net block and other assets | 897 | 896 | 895 | 895 | 895 | 896 |
| Debt | 642 | 642 | 642 | 642 | 642 | 642 |
| Equity | 993 | 1,070 | 1,149 | 1,230 | 1,312 | 1,395 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 72 | 73 | 75 | 76 | 78 | |
| Investing (capex) | (3) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 1% | 39.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹319 | 82.3% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.