Models
SURAJ PRODUCTS LTD.BSE 518075Industrial Products
₹255per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹255implied FY26 P/E 14.0× · EV/EBITDA 9.3×
Against CMP ₹253.90+0.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies7.5%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3171%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹201₹362
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹156₹445
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 83 |
| PV of terminal value | 205 |
| Enterprise value | 289 |
| less net debt | 2 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 291 |
| ÷ 1.14 crore shares | ₹255 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 263 | 281 | 302 | 329 | 362 |
| 10.50% | 244 | 259 | 276 | 298 | 323 |
| 11.00% | 228 | 240 | 255 | 272 | 293 |
| 11.50% | 214 | 224 | 237 | 251 | 268 |
| 12.00% | 201 | 210 | 221 | 233 | 247 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹253.90; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 205 · 253 · 309 |
| Draws below the CMP | 51% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.82 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.53 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.06 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 304 | 328 | 354 | 383 | 413 | 446 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 31 | 34 | 36 | 39 | 43 | 46 |
| margin % | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 |
| less depreciation | (7) | (8) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (10) |
| EBIT | 24 | 26 | 28 | 31 | 33 | 36 |
| less tax on EBIT | (5) | (6) | (6) | (7) | (7) | (8) |
| NOPAT | 19 | 20 | 22 | 24 | 26 | 28 |
| add depreciation | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 |
| less capex | (1) | (1) | (4) | (6) | (9) | (12) |
| less working-capital build | — | (4) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (6) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 22 | 22 | 21 | 21 | 20 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 21 | 19 | 17 | 14 | 12 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 6, dividends at 14.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 24 | 26 | 28 | 31 | 33 | 36 |
| Interest at 17.9% on debt | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Profit before tax | 25 | 27 | 30 | 32 | 35 | |
| Profit after tax | 19 | 20 | 21 | 23 | 25 | 27 |
| Dividends | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (4) | (4) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 8 | 27 | 45 | 62 | 79 | 94 |
| Working capital | 54 | 58 | 63 | 68 | 73 | 79 |
| Net block and other assets | 125 | 119 | 114 | 112 | 111 | 113 |
| Debt | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Equity | 166 | 183 | 201 | 221 | 242 | 265 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 23 | 25 | 27 | 29 | 31 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1) | (4) | (6) | (9) | (12) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (4) | (4) | |
| Net change in cash | 19 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 15 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 22 | 21 | 21 | 20 | 19 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 10.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹255 | 0.4% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.