Models
SURYA ROSHNI LTDSURYAROSNIIndustrial Products
₹155per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹155implied FY26 P/E 10.8× · EV/EBITDA 6.9×
Against CMP ₹214.35−27.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3174%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹121₹222
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹187₹315
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 893 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,489 |
| Enterprise value | 3,383 |
| less net debt | (20) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,363 |
| ÷ 21.76 crore shares | ₹155 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 160 | 171 | 185 | 201 | 222 |
| 10.50% | 148 | 157 | 168 | 182 | 198 |
| 11.00% | 137 | 145 | 155 | 166 | 179 |
| 11.50% | 128 | 135 | 143 | 152 | 163 |
| 12.00% | 121 | 126 | 133 | 141 | 150 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹214.35; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 125 · 153 · 187 |
| Draws below the CMP | 99% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.80 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.56 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.05 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7,997 | 7,809 | 7,436 | 7,540 | 7,654 | 7,768 | 7,885 | 8,003 | 8,123 |
| growth % | 3.4 | (2.3) | (4.8) | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| EBITDA | 614 | 572 | 579 | 487 | 497 | 505 | 513 | 520 | 528 |
| margin % | 7.7 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 |
| less depreciation | (115) | (117) | (123) | (130) | (130) | (132) | (134) | (136) | (138) |
| EBIT | 499 | 455 | 456 | 357 | 367 | 373 | 378 | 384 | 390 |
| less tax on EBIT | (91) | (94) | (95) | (97) | (98) | (99) | |||
| NOPAT | 266 | 274 | 278 | 282 | 286 | 290 | |||
| add depreciation | 115 | 117 | 123 | 130 | 130 | 132 | 134 | 136 | 138 |
| less capex | (36) | (62) | (151) | (160) | (161) | (162) | (163) | (164) | (166) |
| less working-capital build | — | (22) | (22) | (22) | (23) | (23) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 244 | 478 | 244 | — | 221 | 226 | 230 | 235 | 240 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 210 | 193 | 177 | 163 | 150 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 65, dividends at 41.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 357 | 367 | 373 | 378 | 384 | 390 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | |
| Profit before tax | 362 | 368 | 373 | 379 | 385 | |
| Profit after tax | 286 | 270 | 274 | 278 | 282 | 287 |
| Dividends | (120) | (113) | (115) | (117) | (118) | (120) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 44 | 149 | 256 | 366 | 479 | 594 |
| Working capital | 1,459 | 1,480 | 1,502 | 1,525 | 1,548 | 1,571 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,042 | 2,073 | 2,102 | 2,132 | 2,160 | 2,188 |
| Debt | 65 | 65 | 65 | 65 | 65 | 65 |
| Equity | 2,634 | 2,790 | 2,949 | 3,111 | 3,275 | 3,442 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 378 | 384 | 390 | 396 | 402 | |
| Investing (capex) | (161) | (162) | (163) | (164) | (166) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (113) | (115) | (117) | (118) | (120) | |
| Net change in cash | 104 | 107 | 110 | 113 | 116 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 217 | 222 | 226 | 231 | 236 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 1.5% | 6.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹155 | (27.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.