SURYALATA SPINNING MILL L — valuation model

SURYALATA SPINNING MILL LSURYALATextiles & Apparels

₹648per share · Base Model Note

Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.

Scenario

Value per share, your model₹648implied FY26 P/E 7.8× · EV/EBITDA 7.1×

Against CMP ₹395.00+64.2%close of 2026-09-10

Growth the CMP implies(16.3)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs

Value after FY3164%share of enterprise value in the terminal

This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.

Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP

DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid

₹487₹970

52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value

₹330₹508

From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore

PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow	131
PV of terminal value	230
Enterprise value	362
less net debt	(85)
less non-controlling interest	0
add non-operating investments	0
Equity value	277
÷ 0.43 crore shares	₹648

Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore

Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm

Sensitivity · ₹ per share

Down Across

WACC ↓terminal growth →	4.0%	4.5%	5.0%	5.5%	6.0%
10.00%	674	727	792	871	970
10.50%	616	661	714	777	855
11.00%	567	604	648	700	763
11.50%	524	556	593	636	687
12.00%	487	514	546	582	624

The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹395.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.

Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together

10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share	509 · 649 · 809
Draws below the CMP	0%
Rank correlation with ebitda margin	+0.79
Rank correlation with discount rate	−0.58
Rank correlation with revenue growth	−0.02

Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.

Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore

History Forward

₹ crore	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Revenue	484	453	495	484	474	465	455	446	437
growth %	—	(6.3)	9.1	(2.2)	(2.0)	(2.0)	(2.0)	(2.0)	(2.0)
EBITDA	61	44	38	51	50	49	48	47	46
margin %	12.6	9.7	7.7	10.6	10.6	10.6	10.6	10.6	10.6
less depreciation	(12)	(14)	(16)	(16)	(16)	(16)	(15)	(15)	(15)
EBIT	49	30	21	35	34	33	33	32	31
less tax on EBIT				(8)	(8)	(8)	(8)	(7)	(7)
NOPAT				27	26	26	25	25	24
add depreciation	12	14	16	16	16	16	15	15	15
less capex	0	0	0	0	0	(5)	(9)	(14)	(18)
less working-capital build				—	1	1	1	1	1
Free cash flow to firm	83	40	26	—	43	38	32	27	22
Discount factor					0.949	0.855	0.770	0.694	0.625
Present value					41	32	25	19	14

History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.

The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 85, dividends at 1.6% of profit

₹ crore	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Income statement
EBIT	35	34	33	33	32	31
Interest at 5.5% on debt		(5)	(5)	(5)	(5)	(5)
Profit before tax		29	29	28	27	27
Profit after tax	35	23	22	22	21	21
Dividends	(1)	(0)	(0)	(0)	(0)	(0)
Balance sheet, year end
Cash	0	40	74	102	125	143
Working capital	50	49	48	47	46	45
Net block and other assets	392	376	365	359	357	360
Debt	85	85	85	85	85	85
Equity	299	321	343	364	385	405
Balance check	0	0	0	(0)	(0)	0
Cash flow
From operations		40	39	38	37	36
Investing (capex)		0	(5)	(9)	(14)	(18)
Financing (dividends)		(0)	(0)	(0)	(0)	(0)
Net change in cash		39	34	28	23	18
Free cash flow to equity		40	34	29	24	19

Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.

Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share

Scenario	Template	Growth	Margin	Rate	Terminal	₹ / share	vs CMP
Base · editing	DCF	-2%	10.6%	11.00%	5%	₹648	64.2%

A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.