₹1,463per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,463implied FY26 P/E 28.0× · EV/EBITDA 11.2×
Against CMP ₹654.90+123.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(5.5)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3169%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,140₹2,104
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹527₹921
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 567 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,266 |
| Enterprise value | 1,833 |
| less net debt | (119) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,714 |
| ÷ 1.17 crore shares | ₹1,463 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,512 | 1,619 | 1,748 | 1,906 | 2,104 |
| 10.50% | 1,397 | 1,487 | 1,593 | 1,719 | 1,874 |
| 11.00% | 1,300 | 1,375 | 1,463 | 1,566 | 1,691 |
| 11.50% | 1,215 | 1,279 | 1,353 | 1,439 | 1,541 |
| 12.00% | 1,140 | 1,195 | 1,258 | 1,331 | 1,416 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹654.90; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,110 · 1,446 · 1,868 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.72 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.48 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.43 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 193 | 222 | 255 | 293 | 337 | 388 | 446 |
| growth % | — | 15.2 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 |
| EBITDA | 110 | 164 | 189 | 217 | 250 | 287 | 330 |
| margin % | 57.2 | 74.0 | 74.0 | 74.0 | 74.0 | 74.0 | 74.0 |
| less depreciation | (47) | (62) | (72) | (82) | (95) | (109) | (125) |
| EBIT | 64 | 102 | 117 | 135 | 155 | 178 | 205 |
| less tax on EBIT | (25) | (28) | (33) | (38) | (43) | (50) | |
| NOPAT | 77 | 89 | 102 | 117 | 135 | 155 | |
| add depreciation | 47 | 62 | 72 | 82 | 95 | 109 | 125 |
| less capex | (138) | 0 | 0 | (25) | (57) | (98) | (150) |
| less working-capital build | — | (5) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | |
| Free cash flow to firm | (60) | — | 156 | 154 | 149 | 139 | 122 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | 148 | 132 | 115 | 96 | 76 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 136, dividends at 3.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 102 | 117 | 135 | 155 | 178 | 205 |
| Interest at 18.8% on debt | (25) | (25) | (25) | (25) | (25) | |
| Profit before tax | 92 | 109 | 129 | 153 | 179 | |
| Profit after tax | 63 | 69 | 83 | 98 | 116 | 136 |
| Dividends | (2) | (2) | (3) | (3) | (4) | (4) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 16 | 151 | 283 | 410 | 525 | 624 |
| Working capital | 31 | 36 | 41 | 47 | 54 | 62 |
| Net block and other assets | 895 | 824 | 766 | 728 | 717 | 742 |
| Debt | 136 | 136 | 136 | 136 | 136 | 136 |
| Equity | 490 | 557 | 637 | 732 | 843 | 975 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 136 | 160 | 187 | 218 | 253 | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | (25) | (57) | (98) | (150) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (2) | (3) | (3) | (4) | (4) | |
| Net change in cash | 134 | 132 | 127 | 116 | 98 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 136 | 135 | 130 | 119 | 103 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 15% | 74% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,463 | 123.3% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.