Models
SWARAJ ENGINES LTDSWARAJENGIndustrial Products
₹4,482per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹4,482implied FY26 P/E 27.0× · EV/EBITDA 20.2×
Against CMP ₹3,575.00+25.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies13.6%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3181%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹3,409₹6,624
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹3,301₹4,545
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,018 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,410 |
| Enterprise value | 5,428 |
| less net debt | 17 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 5,445 |
| ÷ 1.22 crore shares | ₹4,482 |
81% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 4,635 | 4,997 | 5,431 | 5,961 | 6,624 |
| 10.50% | 4,257 | 4,557 | 4,913 | 5,339 | 5,860 |
| 11.00% | 3,933 | 4,186 | 4,482 | 4,830 | 5,249 |
| 11.50% | 3,654 | 3,869 | 4,118 | 4,407 | 4,750 |
| 12.00% | 3,409 | 3,594 | 3,806 | 4,050 | 4,335 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹3,575.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 3,473 · 4,454 · 5,687 |
| Draws below the CMP | 13% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.71 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.50 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.43 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,422 | 1,419 | 1,682 | 2,007 | 2,399 | 2,866 | 3,425 | 4,093 | 4,891 |
| growth % | 24.9 | (0.2) | 18.5 | 19.3 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 |
| EBITDA | 186 | 188 | 227 | 269 | 321 | 384 | 459 | 548 | 655 |
| margin % | 13.1 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 13.4 |
| less depreciation | (19) | (17) | (20) | (22) | (26) | (32) | (38) | (45) | (54) |
| EBIT | 168 | 171 | 207 | 246 | 295 | 353 | 421 | 503 | 602 |
| less tax on EBIT | (63) | (75) | (90) | (107) | (128) | (153) | |||
| NOPAT | 183 | 220 | 263 | 314 | 375 | 448 | |||
| add depreciation | 19 | 17 | 20 | 22 | 26 | 32 | 38 | 45 | 54 |
| less capex | (13) | (48) | (24) | (70) | (84) | (85) | (83) | (76) | (65) |
| less working-capital build | — | (6) | (7) | (9) | (11) | (13) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 120 | 95 | 152 | — | 156 | 202 | 260 | 333 | 425 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 148 | 173 | 200 | 231 | 266 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 64.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 246 | 295 | 353 | 421 | 503 | 602 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 295 | 353 | 421 | 503 | 602 | |
| Profit after tax | 196 | 220 | 263 | 314 | 375 | 448 |
| Dividends | (127) | (142) | (170) | (203) | (243) | (290) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 17 | 31 | 63 | 120 | 210 | 345 |
| Working capital | 33 | 39 | 47 | 56 | 66 | 79 |
| Net block and other assets | 729 | 786 | 839 | 884 | 915 | 926 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 489 | 567 | 659 | 770 | 902 | 1,061 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 240 | 287 | 343 | 409 | 489 | |
| Investing (capex) | (84) | (85) | (83) | (76) | (65) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (142) | (170) | (203) | (243) | (290) | |
| Net change in cash | 14 | 32 | 57 | 90 | 135 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 156 | 202 | 260 | 333 | 425 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 19.5% | 13.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹4,482 | 25.4% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.