Models
SWELECT ENERGY SYS LTDSWELECTESElectrical Equipment
₹-41per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(41)implied FY26 P/E (1.5)× · EV/EBITDA 4.7×
Against CMP ₹563.95−107.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies31.8%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31122%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(204)₹287
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹483₹977
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (153) |
| PV of terminal value | 851 |
| Enterprise value | 699 |
| less net debt | (761) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (62) |
| ÷ 1.52 crore shares | ₹(41) |
122% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (20) | 36 | 103 | 185 | 287 |
| 10.50% | (77) | (31) | 24 | 90 | 171 |
| 11.00% | (126) | (87) | (41) | 13 | 78 |
| 11.50% | (168) | (134) | (96) | (51) | 2 |
| 12.00% | (204) | (175) | (143) | (105) | (61) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹563.95; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (197) · (47) · 129 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.82 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.51 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.12 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 366 | 243 | 622 | 657 | 693 | 731 | 772 | 814 | 859 |
| growth % | (6.4) | (33.7) | 156.1 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| EBITDA | 72 | 116 | 97 | 150 | 158 | 167 | 176 | 186 | 196 |
| margin % | 19.7 | 48.0 | 15.6 | 22.8 | 22.8 | 22.8 | 22.8 | 22.8 | 22.8 |
| less depreciation | (33) | (42) | (43) | (49) | (51) | (54) | (57) | (60) | (64) |
| EBIT | 38 | 75 | 54 | 101 | 107 | 113 | 119 | 125 | 132 |
| less tax on EBIT | (24) | (25) | (27) | (28) | (30) | (31) | |||
| NOPAT | 77 | 81 | 86 | 91 | 96 | 101 | |||
| add depreciation | 33 | 42 | 43 | 49 | 51 | 54 | 57 | 60 | 64 |
| less capex | (151) | (128) | (138) | (242) | (255) | (218) | (176) | (129) | (76) |
| less working-capital build | — | (5) | (5) | (5) | (6) | (6) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (20) | (38) | (7) | — | (127) | (83) | (34) | 21 | 82 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (121) | (71) | (26) | 14 | 51 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 798, dividends at 8.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 101 | 107 | 113 | 119 | 125 | 132 |
| Interest at 8.6% on debt | (69) | (69) | (69) | (69) | (69) | |
| Profit before tax | 38 | 44 | 50 | 57 | 64 | |
| Profit after tax | 55 | 29 | 34 | 38 | 43 | 49 |
| Dividends | (5) | (2) | (3) | (3) | (4) | (4) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 36 | (146) | (284) | (373) | (408) | (383) |
| Working capital | 89 | 94 | 99 | 105 | 110 | 117 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,957 | 2,161 | 2,325 | 2,444 | 2,513 | 2,526 |
| Debt | 798 | 798 | 798 | 798 | 798 | 798 |
| Equity | 954 | 981 | 1,012 | 1,047 | 1,087 | 1,131 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 75 | 82 | 90 | 98 | 106 | |
| Investing (capex) | (255) | (218) | (176) | (129) | (76) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (2) | (3) | (3) | (4) | (4) | |
| Net change in cash | (182) | (138) | (89) | (35) | 26 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (180) | (136) | (86) | (31) | 30 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 5.5% | 22.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(41) | (107.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.