Models
SYRMA SGS TECHNOLOGY LTDSYRMAIndustrial Manufacturing
₹279per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹279implied FY26 P/E 14.5× · EV/EBITDA 10.2×
Against CMP ₹1,594.80−82.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3185%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹207₹424
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹635₹1,660
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 802 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,729 |
| Enterprise value | 5,531 |
| less net debt | (161) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 5,370 |
| ÷ 19.26 crore shares | ₹279 |
85% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 289 | 313 | 343 | 379 | 424 |
| 10.50% | 264 | 284 | 308 | 337 | 372 |
| 11.00% | 242 | 259 | 279 | 302 | 331 |
| 11.50% | 223 | 238 | 254 | 274 | 297 |
| 12.00% | 207 | 219 | 233 | 250 | 269 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,594.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 168 · 272 · 378 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.90 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.34 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.16 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,048 | 3,154 | 3,787 | 4,819 | 6,144 | 7,834 | 9,988 | 12,735 | 16,237 |
| growth % | — | 54.0 | 20.1 | 27.3 | 27.5 | 27.5 | 27.5 | 27.5 | 27.5 |
| EBITDA | 1,592 | 197 | 321 | 540 | 688 | 877 | 1,119 | 1,426 | 1,819 |
| margin % | 77.7 | 6.3 | 8.5 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 11.2 |
| less depreciation | (31) | (51) | (75) | (84) | (104) | (133) | (170) | (216) | (276) |
| EBIT | 1,561 | 146 | 246 | 456 | 584 | 744 | 949 | 1,210 | 1,543 |
| less tax on EBIT | (102) | (131) | (167) | (213) | (271) | (346) | |||
| NOPAT | 354 | 453 | 578 | 736 | 939 | 1,197 | |||
| add depreciation | 31 | 51 | 75 | 84 | 104 | 133 | 170 | 216 | 276 |
| less capex | (111) | (325) | (237) | (184) | (233) | (263) | (292) | (316) | (331) |
| less working-capital build | — | (260) | (331) | (422) | (538) | (686) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 1,223 | (439) | (60) | — | 64 | 116 | 192 | 301 | 455 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 61 | 99 | 148 | 209 | 285 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 353, dividends at 8.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 456 | 584 | 744 | 949 | 1,210 | 1,543 |
| Interest at 10% on debt | (35) | (35) | (35) | (35) | (35) | |
| Profit before tax | 548 | 709 | 914 | 1,175 | 1,507 | |
| Profit after tax | 346 | 426 | 550 | 709 | 911 | 1,170 |
| Dividends | (29) | (35) | (46) | (59) | (76) | (97) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 192 | 194 | 237 | 343 | 541 | 872 |
| Working capital | 944 | 1,204 | 1,535 | 1,957 | 2,496 | 3,182 |
| Net block and other assets | 4,634 | 4,763 | 4,893 | 5,015 | 5,114 | 5,169 |
| Debt | 353 | 353 | 353 | 353 | 353 | 353 |
| Equity | 3,065 | 3,456 | 3,960 | 4,610 | 5,446 | 6,519 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 270 | 352 | 456 | 590 | 759 | |
| Investing (capex) | (233) | (263) | (292) | (316) | (331) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (35) | (46) | (59) | (76) | (97) | |
| Net change in cash | 1 | 43 | 106 | 198 | 331 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 37 | 89 | 165 | 274 | 428 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 27.5% | 11.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹279 | (82.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.