Models
TALBROS AUTO. COMP. LTDTALBROAUTOAuto Components
₹167per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹167implied FY26 P/E 9.2× · EV/EBITDA 7.8×
Against CMP ₹424.00−60.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3175%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹128₹244
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹220₹452
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 266 |
| PV of terminal value | 804 |
| Enterprise value | 1,070 |
| less net debt | (39) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,031 |
| ÷ 6.17 crore shares | ₹167 |
75% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 173 | 186 | 201 | 220 | 244 |
| 10.50% | 159 | 170 | 183 | 198 | 217 |
| 11.00% | 147 | 156 | 167 | 180 | 195 |
| 11.50% | 137 | 145 | 154 | 164 | 177 |
| 12.00% | 128 | 135 | 143 | 151 | 162 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹424.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 133 · 166 · 205 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.81 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.55 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 647 | 778 | 827 | 870 | 914 | 959 | 1,007 | 1,058 | 1,110 |
| growth % | 12.1 | 20.3 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| EBITDA | 87 | 157 | 130 | 137 | 143 | 151 | 158 | 166 | 174 |
| margin % | 13.5 | 20.2 | 15.7 | 15.7 | 15.7 | 15.7 | 15.7 | 15.7 | 15.7 |
| less depreciation | (24) | (26) | (32) | (33) | (35) | (36) | (38) | (40) | (42) |
| EBIT | 64 | 131 | 98 | 104 | 109 | 114 | 120 | 126 | 132 |
| less tax on EBIT | (25) | (27) | (28) | (29) | (31) | (32) | |||
| NOPAT | 78 | 82 | 86 | 90 | 95 | 100 | |||
| add depreciation | 24 | 26 | 32 | 33 | 35 | 36 | 38 | 40 | 42 |
| less capex | (42) | (60) | (54) | (41) | (44) | (45) | (47) | (49) | (51) |
| less working-capital build | — | (11) | (12) | (13) | (13) | (14) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 15 | 7 | 26 | — | 62 | 65 | 69 | 73 | 77 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 58 | 56 | 53 | 51 | 48 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 75, dividends at 4.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 104 | 109 | 114 | 120 | 126 | 132 |
| Interest at 16.7% on debt | (13) | (13) | (13) | (13) | (13) | |
| Profit before tax | 96 | 102 | 107 | 113 | 120 | |
| Profit after tax | 104 | 73 | 77 | 81 | 86 | 90 |
| Dividends | (4) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (4) | (4) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 36 | 85 | 137 | 194 | 254 | 318 |
| Working capital | 229 | 240 | 252 | 265 | 278 | 292 |
| Net block and other assets | 820 | 830 | 839 | 847 | 856 | 865 |
| Debt | 75 | 75 | 75 | 75 | 75 | 75 |
| Equity | 743 | 813 | 886 | 964 | 1,046 | 1,133 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 96 | 101 | 107 | 113 | 119 | |
| Investing (capex) | (44) | (45) | (47) | (49) | (51) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (4) | (4) | |
| Net change in cash | 49 | 53 | 56 | 60 | 64 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 52 | 56 | 60 | 64 | 68 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 5% | 15.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹167 | (60.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.