Models
TAMILNADU NEWSPRT & PAPERTNPLPaper Forest & Jute Products
₹1,627per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,627implied FY26 P/E 43.2× · EV/EBITDA 26.7×
Against CMP ₹153.99+956.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(20.0)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3174%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,217₹2,446
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹122₹176
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 3,280 |
| PV of terminal value | 9,568 |
| Enterprise value | 12,848 |
| less net debt | (1,585) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 11,263 |
| ÷ 6.92 crore shares | ₹1,627 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,688 | 1,826 | 1,991 | 2,193 | 2,446 |
| 10.50% | 1,543 | 1,657 | 1,793 | 1,955 | 2,153 |
| 11.00% | 1,419 | 1,515 | 1,627 | 1,760 | 1,920 |
| 11.50% | 1,311 | 1,393 | 1,488 | 1,598 | 1,729 |
| 12.00% | 1,217 | 1,287 | 1,368 | 1,461 | 1,569 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹153.99; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,022 · 1,615 · 2,258 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.92 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.33 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.09 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5,180 | 4,693 | 4,491 | 4,645 | 4,807 | 4,976 | 5,150 | 5,330 | 5,517 |
| growth % | 28.8 | (9.4) | (4.3) | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| EBITDA | 1,003 | 770 | 428 | 481 | 500 | 517 | 536 | 554 | 574 |
| margin % | 19.4 | 16.4 | 9.5 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 10.4 |
| less depreciation | (264) | (291) | (304) | (313) | (322) | (333) | (345) | (357) | (370) |
| EBIT | 739 | 479 | 124 | 168 | 178 | 184 | 191 | 197 | 204 |
| less tax on EBIT | 654 | 693 | 717 | 742 | 768 | 795 | |||
| NOPAT | 822 | 871 | 901 | 933 | 966 | 999 | |||
| add depreciation | 264 | 291 | 304 | 313 | 322 | 333 | 345 | 357 | 370 |
| less capex | (107) | (143) | (174) | (397) | (409) | (417) | (426) | (435) | (444) |
| less working-capital build | — | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 701 | 277 | 396 | — | 781 | 814 | 848 | 884 | 921 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 741 | 696 | 653 | 614 | 576 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,599, dividends at 8.4% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 168 | 178 | 184 | 191 | 197 | 204 |
| Interest at 12.1% on debt | (193) | (193) | (193) | (193) | (193) | |
| Profit before tax | (16) | (9) | (3) | 4 | 11 | |
| Profit after tax | 248 | (76) | (46) | (14) | 18 | 52 |
| Dividends | (21) | 0 | 0 | 0 | (2) | (4) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 14 | (153) | (286) | (385) | (450) | (480) |
| Working capital | 101 | 104 | 108 | 112 | 116 | 120 |
| Net block and other assets | 6,096 | 6,183 | 6,266 | 6,347 | 6,425 | 6,499 |
| Debt | 1,599 | 1,599 | 1,599 | 1,599 | 1,599 | 1,599 |
| Equity | 2,316 | 2,240 | 2,194 | 2,180 | 2,196 | 2,244 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 242 | 284 | 327 | 372 | 418 | |
| Investing (capex) | (409) | (417) | (426) | (435) | (444) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | (2) | (4) | |
| Net change in cash | (166) | (133) | (99) | (65) | (30) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (166) | (133) | (99) | (63) | (26) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 3.5% | 10.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,627 | 956.8% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.