Models
TAMILNADU PETROPRODUCTS LTNPETROChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹40per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹40implied FY26 P/E 2.6× · EV/EBITDA 4.4×
Against CMP ₹129.00−68.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31121%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹17₹88
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹79₹147
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (128) |
| PV of terminal value | 738 |
| Enterprise value | 610 |
| less net debt | (247) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 363 |
| ÷ 9.00 crore shares | ₹40 |
121% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 43 | 52 | 61 | 73 | 88 |
| 10.50% | 35 | 42 | 50 | 60 | 71 |
| 11.00% | 28 | 34 | 40 | 48 | 58 |
| 11.50% | 22 | 27 | 32 | 39 | 47 |
| 12.00% | 17 | 21 | 25 | 31 | 37 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹129.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 24 · 41 · 61 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.70 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.69 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,150 | 1,669 | 1,827 | 1,466 | 1,393 | 1,323 | 1,257 | 1,194 | 1,134 |
| growth % | 19.1 | (22.4) | 9.5 | (19.7) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 128 | 58 | 82 | 138 | 131 | 124 | 118 | 112 | 107 |
| margin % | 5.9 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.4 |
| less depreciation | (21) | (23) | (25) | (26) | (25) | (24) | (23) | (21) | (20) |
| EBIT | 106 | 35 | 57 | 112 | 106 | 101 | 96 | 91 | 86 |
| less tax on EBIT | (27) | (26) | (24) | (23) | (22) | (21) | |||
| NOPAT | 85 | 80 | 76 | 72 | 69 | 65 | |||
| add depreciation | 21 | 23 | 25 | 26 | 25 | 24 | 23 | 21 | 20 |
| less capex | (85) | (45) | (387) | (257) | (244) | (181) | (124) | (72) | (25) |
| less working-capital build | — | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 10 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 3 | 116 | (179) | — | (126) | (69) | (18) | 29 | 71 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (120) | (59) | (14) | 20 | 44 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 450, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 112 | 106 | 101 | 96 | 91 | 86 |
| Interest at 5.7% on debt | (26) | (26) | (26) | (26) | (26) | |
| Profit before tax | 80 | 75 | 70 | 65 | 61 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 61 | 57 | 53 | 49 | 46 |
| Dividends | (11) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 203 | 57 | (31) | (69) | (59) | (7) |
| Working capital | 243 | 231 | 220 | 209 | 198 | 188 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,253 | 1,472 | 1,629 | 1,730 | 1,780 | 1,784 |
| Debt | 450 | 450 | 450 | 450 | 450 | 450 |
| Equity | 1,018 | 1,078 | 1,135 | 1,188 | 1,237 | 1,283 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 98 | 92 | 87 | 81 | 76 | |
| Investing (capex) | (244) | (181) | (124) | (72) | (25) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (146) | (89) | (37) | 10 | 52 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (146) | (89) | (37) | 10 | 52 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 9.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹40 | (68.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.