Models
TANFAC INDUSTRIES LTD.BSE 506854Chemicals & Petrochemicals
₹495per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹495implied FY26 P/E 8.1× · EV/EBITDA 9.5×
Against CMP ₹3,395.00−85.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3198%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹343₹799
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,633₹3,648
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 26 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,034 |
| Enterprise value | 1,059 |
| less net debt | (72) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 987 |
| ÷ 2.00 crore shares | ₹495 |
98% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 515 | 567 | 629 | 705 | 799 |
| 10.50% | 462 | 505 | 556 | 617 | 691 |
| 11.00% | 417 | 453 | 495 | 545 | 605 |
| 11.50% | 378 | 408 | 444 | 485 | 534 |
| 12.00% | 343 | 370 | 400 | 435 | 476 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹3,395.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 281 · 482 · 694 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.90 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.36 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.10 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 375 | 378 | 557 | 711 | 907 | 1,156 | 1,474 | 1,879 | 2,396 |
| growth % | 17.1 | 0.9 | 47.3 | 27.7 | 27.5 | 27.5 | 27.5 | 27.5 | 27.5 |
| EBITDA | 75 | 71 | 129 | 112 | 143 | 183 | 233 | 297 | 379 |
| margin % | 19.9 | 18.7 | 23.1 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 15.8 |
| less depreciation | (6) | (7) | (10) | (17) | (23) | (29) | (37) | (47) | (60) |
| EBIT | 68 | 64 | 118 | 95 | 121 | 154 | 196 | 250 | 319 |
| less tax on EBIT | (23) | (29) | (37) | (48) | (61) | (77) | |||
| NOPAT | 72 | 91 | 116 | 148 | 189 | 241 | |||
| add depreciation | 6 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 23 | 29 | 37 | 47 | 60 |
| less capex | (15) | (36) | (97) | (82) | (105) | (109) | (108) | (97) | (72) |
| less working-capital build | — | (49) | (63) | (80) | (102) | (130) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 28 | (2) | (64) | — | (40) | (27) | (2) | 38 | 100 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (38) | (23) | (2) | 26 | 62 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 93, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 95 | 121 | 154 | 196 | 250 | 319 |
| Interest at 6.4% on debt | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | |
| Profit before tax | 115 | 148 | 190 | 244 | 313 | |
| Profit after tax | 70 | 87 | 112 | 144 | 185 | 237 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 21 | (24) | (55) | (61) | (28) | 67 |
| Working capital | 178 | 227 | 290 | 370 | 471 | 601 |
| Net block and other assets | 328 | 411 | 491 | 562 | 612 | 624 |
| Debt | 93 | 93 | 93 | 93 | 93 | 93 |
| Equity | 373 | 460 | 572 | 716 | 900 | 1,137 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 60 | 78 | 101 | 130 | 167 | |
| Investing (capex) | (105) | (109) | (108) | (97) | (72) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (45) | (31) | (7) | 33 | 95 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (45) | (31) | (7) | 33 | 95 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 27.5% | 15.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹495 | (85.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.