Models
TAPARIA TOOLS LTD.BSE 505685Industrial Products
₹1,872per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,872implied FY26 P/E 15.3× · EV/EBITDA 14.8×
Against CMP ₹12.74+14590.7%close of 2026-08-26
Growth the CMP implies(20.0)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,444₹2,725
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹11₹37
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 644 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,191 |
| Enterprise value | 2,835 |
| less net debt | 6 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,841 |
| ÷ 1.52 crore shares | ₹1,872 |
77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,934 | 2,078 | 2,250 | 2,461 | 2,725 |
| 10.50% | 1,783 | 1,902 | 2,044 | 2,213 | 2,420 |
| 11.00% | 1,654 | 1,754 | 1,872 | 2,010 | 2,177 |
| 11.50% | 1,542 | 1,627 | 1,726 | 1,841 | 1,978 |
| 12.00% | 1,444 | 1,518 | 1,602 | 1,699 | 1,812 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹12.74; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,543 · 1,860 · 2,254 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.64 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.60 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.41 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 764 | 829 | 913 | 1,023 | 1,146 | 1,284 | 1,438 | 1,610 | 1,804 |
| growth % | 14.5 | 8.4 | 10.2 | 12.1 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 |
| EBITDA | 94 | 126 | 156 | 192 | 214 | 240 | 269 | 301 | 337 |
| margin % | 12.3 | 15.2 | 17.1 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 18.7 |
| less depreciation | (2) | (1) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (5) |
| EBIT | 93 | 125 | 153 | 189 | 211 | 236 | 265 | 296 | 332 |
| less tax on EBIT | (47) | (53) | (59) | (66) | (74) | (83) | |||
| NOPAT | 141 | 158 | 177 | 198 | 222 | 249 | |||
| add depreciation | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| less capex | (2) | (1) | (7) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) |
| less working-capital build | — | (23) | (26) | (29) | (33) | (37) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 84 | 116 | 72 | — | 132 | 149 | 167 | 188 | 211 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 126 | 127 | 129 | 130 | 132 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 57.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 189 | 211 | 236 | 265 | 296 | 332 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 211 | 236 | 265 | 296 | 332 | |
| Profit after tax | 152 | 158 | 177 | 198 | 222 | 249 |
| Dividends | (86) | (90) | (101) | (113) | (127) | (142) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 6 | 48 | 96 | 150 | 211 | 280 |
| Working capital | 194 | 217 | 243 | 272 | 305 | 341 |
| Net block and other assets | 321 | 323 | 325 | 327 | 329 | 330 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 436 | 503 | 579 | 664 | 759 | 866 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 138 | 155 | 173 | 194 | 217 | |
| Investing (capex) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (90) | (101) | (113) | (127) | (142) | |
| Net change in cash | 42 | 48 | 54 | 61 | 69 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 132 | 149 | 167 | 188 | 211 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 12% | 18.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,872 | 14590.7% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.