₹1,265per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,265implied FY26 P/E 9.0× · EV/EBITDA 4.8×
Against CMP ₹10,300.00−87.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3157%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,064₹1,661
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹6,430₹10,544
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 127 |
| PV of terminal value | 170 |
| Enterprise value | 298 |
| less net debt | 27 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 325 |
| ÷ 0.26 crore shares | ₹1,265 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,297 | 1,363 | 1,443 | 1,540 | 1,661 |
| 10.50% | 1,226 | 1,281 | 1,346 | 1,424 | 1,519 |
| 11.00% | 1,164 | 1,211 | 1,265 | 1,329 | 1,405 |
| 11.50% | 1,111 | 1,151 | 1,196 | 1,249 | 1,312 |
| 12.00% | 1,064 | 1,098 | 1,137 | 1,181 | 1,234 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹10,300.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,007 · 1,267 · 1,545 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.91 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.40 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 476 | 540 | 554 | 549 | 543 | 538 | 532 | 527 | 522 |
| growth % | 27.8 | 13.6 | 2.6 | (1.0) | (1.0) | (1.0) | (1.0) | (1.0) | (1.0) |
| EBITDA | 64 | 74 | 52 | 61 | 61 | 60 | 60 | 59 | 58 |
| margin % | 13.4 | 13.7 | 9.3 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 11.2 |
| less depreciation | (27) | (30) | (30) | (31) | (31) | (31) | (30) | (30) | (30) |
| EBIT | 36 | 45 | 22 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 29 | 29 | 29 |
| less tax on EBIT | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (7) | (7) | |||
| NOPAT | 23 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 21 | |||
| add depreciation | 27 | 30 | 30 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 30 | 30 | 30 |
| less capex | (38) | (17) | (13) | (8) | (8) | (15) | (22) | (29) | (36) |
| less working-capital build | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 23 | 50 | 26 | — | 46 | 38 | 31 | 24 | 16 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 44 | 33 | 24 | 16 | 10 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 1.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 30 | 30 | 30 | 29 | 29 | 29 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 30 | 30 | 29 | 29 | 29 | |
| Profit after tax | 35 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 21 |
| Dividends | (1) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 27 | 73 | 111 | 142 | 165 | 181 |
| Working capital | 111 | 110 | 109 | 108 | 107 | 106 |
| Net block and other assets | 337 | 314 | 299 | 291 | 289 | 295 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 342 | 364 | 385 | 407 | 428 | 449 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 54 | 54 | 53 | 53 | 52 | |
| Investing (capex) | (8) | (15) | (22) | (29) | (36) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Net change in cash | 46 | 38 | 31 | 23 | 16 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 46 | 38 | 31 | 24 | 16 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -1% | 11.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,265 | (87.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.