Models
TATA COMMUNICATIONS LTDTATACOMMTelecom - Services
₹256per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹256implied FY26 P/E 7.7× · EV/EBITDA 3.6×
Against CMP ₹1,755.20−85.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies42.9%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3165%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹138₹490
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,323₹2,110
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 5,990 |
| PV of terminal value | 11,242 |
| Enterprise value | 17,232 |
| less net debt | (9,940) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 7,292 |
| ÷ 28.50 crore shares | ₹256 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 274 | 313 | 361 | 418 | 490 |
| 10.50% | 232 | 265 | 303 | 350 | 406 |
| 11.00% | 196 | 224 | 256 | 294 | 339 |
| 11.50% | 165 | 188 | 215 | 247 | 284 |
| 12.00% | 138 | 158 | 181 | 207 | 238 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,755.20; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 16 · 248 · 500 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.94 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.24 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.15 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 17,838 | 20,969 | 23,109 | 24,803 | 26,663 | 28,663 | 30,812 | 33,123 | 35,608 |
| growth % | 6.7 | 17.5 | 10.2 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| EBITDA | 4,395 | 3,994 | 5,260 | 4,725 | 5,066 | 5,446 | 5,854 | 6,293 | 6,765 |
| margin % | 24.6 | 19.0 | 22.8 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 |
| less depreciation | (2,262) | (2,470) | (2,592) | (2,827) | (3,040) | (3,268) | (3,513) | (3,776) | (4,059) |
| EBIT | 2,133 | 1,525 | 2,668 | 1,898 | 2,026 | 2,178 | 2,342 | 2,517 | 2,706 |
| less tax on EBIT | (569) | (608) | (654) | (703) | (755) | (812) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,328 | 1,418 | 1,525 | 1,639 | 1,762 | 1,894 | |||
| add depreciation | 2,262 | 2,470 | 2,592 | 2,827 | 3,040 | 3,268 | 3,513 | 3,776 | 4,059 |
| less capex | (1,493) | (2,082) | (2,206) | (2,433) | (2,613) | (3,087) | (3,617) | (4,210) | (4,871) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 2,891 | 1,100 | 705 | — | 1,845 | 1,705 | 1,534 | 1,328 | 1,082 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 1,751 | 1,458 | 1,182 | 922 | 677 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 10,582, dividends at 71.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,898 | 2,026 | 2,178 | 2,342 | 2,517 | 2,706 |
| Interest at 7.1% on debt | (751) | (751) | (751) | (751) | (751) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,275 | 1,427 | 1,590 | 1,766 | 1,955 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,002 | 893 | 999 | 1,113 | 1,236 | 1,368 |
| Dividends | (713) | (635) | (710) | (792) | (879) | (973) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 642 | 1,327 | 1,796 | 2,013 | 1,936 | 1,520 |
| Working capital | (48) | (48) | (48) | (48) | (48) | (48) |
| Net block and other assets | 27,810 | 27,383 | 27,202 | 27,307 | 27,741 | 28,553 |
| Debt | 10,582 | 10,582 | 10,582 | 10,582 | 10,582 | 10,582 |
| Equity | 3,651 | 3,909 | 4,198 | 4,519 | 4,877 | 5,272 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 3,932 | 4,266 | 4,626 | 5,012 | 5,428 | |
| Investing (capex) | (2,613) | (3,087) | (3,617) | (4,210) | (4,871) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (635) | (710) | (792) | (879) | (973) | |
| Net change in cash | 685 | 469 | 217 | (77) | (416) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 1,319 | 1,180 | 1,009 | 802 | 557 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 7.5% | 19% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹256 | (85.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.