Models
TATA CONSULTANCY SERV LTTCSIT - Software
₹2,126per share · Base Model Note
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹2,126implied FY26 P/E 15.4× · EV/EBITDA 11.2×
Against CMP ₹2,200.80−3.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies5.6%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3174%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,663₹3,048
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,977₹3,350
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,99,227 |
| PV of terminal value | 5,63,949 |
| Enterprise value | 7,63,176 |
| less net debt | 6,417 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 7,69,593 |
| ÷ 362.00 crore shares | ₹2,126 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 2,194 | 2,350 | 2,536 | 2,764 | 3,048 |
| 10.50% | 2,031 | 2,160 | 2,312 | 2,495 | 2,719 |
| 11.00% | 1,891 | 1,999 | 2,126 | 2,276 | 2,455 |
| 11.50% | 1,769 | 1,862 | 1,968 | 2,093 | 2,240 |
| 12.00% | 1,663 | 1,743 | 1,833 | 1,938 | 2,060 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹2,200.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,793 · 2,111 · 2,514 |
| Draws below the CMP | 62% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.69 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.66 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.19 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,25,458 | 2,40,893 | 2,55,324 | 2,67,021 | 2,79,037 | 2,91,594 | 3,04,715 | 3,18,428 | 3,32,757 |
| growth % | 17.6 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| EBITDA | 59,259 | 63,338 | 67,407 | 67,872 | 70,875 | 74,065 | 77,398 | 80,881 | 84,520 |
| margin % | 26.3 | 26.3 | 26.4 | 25.4 | 25.4 | 25.4 | 25.4 | 25.4 | 25.4 |
| less depreciation | (5,022) | (4,985) | (5,242) | (5,560) | (5,860) | (6,123) | (6,399) | (6,687) | (6,988) |
| EBIT | 54,237 | 58,353 | 62,165 | 62,312 | 65,016 | 67,941 | 70,999 | 74,194 | 77,532 |
| less tax on EBIT | (15,266) | (15,929) | (16,646) | (17,395) | (18,177) | (18,995) | |||
| NOPAT | 47,046 | 49,087 | 51,296 | 53,604 | 56,016 | 58,537 | |||
| add depreciation | 5,022 | 4,985 | 5,242 | 5,560 | 5,860 | 6,123 | 6,399 | 6,687 | 6,988 |
| less capex | (2,532) | (2,202) | (2,917) | (3,670) | (3,907) | (4,899) | (5,972) | (7,133) | (8,385) |
| less working-capital build | — | (2,379) | (2,486) | (2,598) | (2,715) | (2,837) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 39,433 | 42,136 | 45,991 | — | 48,661 | 50,034 | 51,432 | 52,855 | 54,302 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 46,187 | 42,784 | 39,621 | 36,682 | 33,952 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 80.4% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 62,312 | 65,016 | 67,941 | 70,999 | 74,194 | 77,532 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 65,016 | 67,941 | 70,999 | 74,194 | 77,532 | |
| Profit after tax | 49,210 | 49,087 | 51,296 | 53,604 | 56,016 | 58,537 |
| Dividends | (39,571) | (39,466) | (41,242) | (43,098) | (45,037) | (47,064) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 6,417 | 15,612 | 24,405 | 32,739 | 40,558 | 47,796 |
| Working capital | 52,965 | 55,344 | 57,831 | 60,429 | 63,144 | 65,981 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,22,990 | 1,21,036 | 1,19,812 | 1,19,385 | 1,19,831 | 1,21,229 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 1,08,478 | 1,18,099 | 1,28,153 | 1,38,659 | 1,49,639 | 1,61,112 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 52,567 | 54,933 | 57,405 | 59,988 | 62,688 | |
| Investing (capex) | (3,907) | (4,899) | (5,972) | (7,133) | (8,385) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (39,466) | (41,242) | (43,098) | (45,037) | (47,064) | |
| Net change in cash | 9,195 | 8,792 | 8,335 | 7,818 | 7,238 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 48,661 | 50,034 | 51,432 | 52,855 | 54,302 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 4.5% | 25.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹2,126 | (3.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.