Models
TATA CONSUMER PRODUCT LTDTATACONSUMAgricultural Food & other Products
₹395per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹395implied FY26 P/E 23.9× · EV/EBITDA 13.8×
Against CMP ₹991.00−60.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies43.9%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹308₹569
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹993₹1,283
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 9,041 |
| PV of terminal value | 29,091 |
| Enterprise value | 38,132 |
| less net debt | 926 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 39,058 |
| ÷ 98.96 crore shares | ₹395 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 407 | 437 | 472 | 515 | 569 |
| 10.50% | 377 | 401 | 430 | 464 | 506 |
| 11.00% | 350 | 371 | 395 | 423 | 457 |
| 11.50% | 327 | 345 | 365 | 389 | 416 |
| 12.00% | 308 | 323 | 340 | 359 | 382 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹991.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 314 · 392 · 489 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.61 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.54 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.52 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 13,783 | 15,206 | 17,618 | 20,290 | 23,334 | 26,834 | 30,859 | 35,488 | 40,811 |
| growth % | 10.9 | 10.3 | 15.9 | 15.2 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 |
| EBITDA | 2,016 | 1,957 | 2,474 | 2,772 | 3,197 | 3,676 | 4,228 | 4,862 | 5,591 |
| margin % | 14.6 | 12.9 | 14.0 | 13.7 | 13.7 | 13.7 | 13.7 | 13.7 | 13.7 |
| less depreciation | (304) | (377) | (601) | (627) | (723) | (832) | (957) | (1,100) | (1,265) |
| EBIT | 1,712 | 1,580 | 1,873 | 2,145 | 2,473 | 2,844 | 3,271 | 3,762 | 4,326 |
| less tax on EBIT | (528) | (608) | (700) | (805) | (925) | (1,064) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,617 | 1,865 | 2,145 | 2,466 | 2,836 | 3,262 | |||
| add depreciation | 304 | 377 | 601 | 627 | 723 | 832 | 957 | 1,100 | 1,265 |
| less capex | (312) | (335) | (460) | (449) | (513) | (692) | (913) | (1,185) | (1,518) |
| less working-capital build | — | (119) | (137) | (157) | (181) | (208) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 1,150 | 1,602 | 1,597 | — | 1,956 | 2,148 | 2,353 | 2,571 | 2,801 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 1,857 | 1,837 | 1,812 | 1,784 | 1,751 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 2,120, dividends at 53.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 2,145 | 2,473 | 2,844 | 3,271 | 3,762 | 4,326 |
| Interest at 6.9% on debt | (146) | (146) | (146) | (146) | (146) | |
| Profit before tax | 2,327 | 2,698 | 3,125 | 3,615 | 4,180 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,542 | 1,755 | 2,034 | 2,356 | 2,726 | 3,151 |
| Dividends | (820) | (933) | (1,082) | (1,253) | (1,450) | (1,677) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 3,047 | 3,959 | 4,914 | 5,903 | 6,913 | 7,927 |
| Working capital | 800 | 919 | 1,056 | 1,213 | 1,393 | 1,601 |
| Net block and other assets | 30,606 | 30,396 | 30,256 | 30,213 | 30,298 | 30,551 |
| Debt | 2,120 | 2,120 | 2,120 | 2,120 | 2,120 | 2,120 |
| Equity | 23,189 | 24,010 | 24,962 | 26,065 | 27,341 | 28,815 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 2,359 | 2,730 | 3,156 | 3,646 | 4,209 | |
| Investing (capex) | (513) | (692) | (913) | (1,185) | (1,518) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (933) | (1,082) | (1,253) | (1,450) | (1,677) | |
| Net change in cash | 912 | 955 | 989 | 1,010 | 1,014 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 1,846 | 2,037 | 2,242 | 2,460 | 2,691 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 15% | 13.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹395 | (60.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.