Models
TATA MOTORS LIMITEDTMCVAgricultural Commercial & Construction Vehicles
₹140per share · Base Model Note
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹140implied FY26 P/E 12.3× · EV/EBITDA 8.0×
Against CMP ₹434.10−67.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies39.4%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3172%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹111₹197
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹306₹509
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 13,781 |
| PV of terminal value | 35,684 |
| Enterprise value | 49,465 |
| less net debt | 2,082 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 51,547 |
| ÷ 368.50 crore shares | ₹140 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 144 | 154 | 165 | 180 | 197 |
| 10.50% | 134 | 142 | 151 | 163 | 177 |
| 11.00% | 125 | 132 | 140 | 149 | 160 |
| 11.50% | 118 | 123 | 130 | 138 | 147 |
| 12.00% | 111 | 116 | 122 | 128 | 136 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹434.10; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 113 · 139 · 170 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.74 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.52 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.35 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 83,855 | 90,563 | 97,808 | 1,05,633 | 1,14,084 | 1,23,211 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 6,189 | 6,702 | 7,238 | 7,817 | 8,442 | 9,118 |
| margin % | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 |
| less depreciation | (1,945) | (2,083) | (2,250) | (2,430) | (2,624) | (2,834) |
| EBIT | 4,244 | 4,619 | 4,988 | 5,387 | 5,818 | 6,284 |
| less tax on EBIT | (1,541) | (1,677) | (1,811) | (1,956) | (2,112) | (2,281) |
| NOPAT | 2,703 | 2,942 | 3,178 | 3,432 | 3,706 | 4,003 |
| add depreciation | 1,945 | 2,083 | 2,250 | 2,430 | 2,624 | 2,834 |
| less capex | (1,321) | (1,449) | (1,849) | (2,303) | (2,818) | (3,401) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 3,576 | 3,579 | 3,558 | 3,512 | 3,436 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 3,394 | 3,060 | 2,741 | 2,438 | 2,148 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 4,817, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 4,244 | 4,619 | 4,988 | 5,387 | 5,818 | 6,284 |
| Interest at 18.1% on debt | (872) | (872) | (872) | (872) | (872) | |
| Profit before tax | 3,747 | 4,116 | 4,515 | 4,946 | 5,412 | |
| Profit after tax | 3,051 | 2,387 | 2,622 | 2,876 | 3,151 | 3,447 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 6,899 | 9,920 | 12,943 | 15,946 | 18,903 | 21,783 |
| Working capital | (7,535) | (7,535) | (7,535) | (7,535) | (7,535) | (7,535) |
| Net block and other assets | 52,945 | 52,312 | 51,911 | 51,784 | 51,978 | 52,544 |
| Debt | 4,817 | 4,817 | 4,817 | 4,817 | 4,817 | 4,817 |
| Equity | 12,734 | 15,121 | 17,743 | 20,619 | 23,770 | 27,217 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 4,470 | 4,872 | 5,306 | 5,775 | 6,281 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,449) | (1,849) | (2,303) | (2,818) | (3,401) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 3,021 | 3,023 | 3,003 | 2,957 | 2,881 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 3,021 | 3,023 | 3,003 | 2,957 | 2,881 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 7.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹140 | (67.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.